Weekly Bias — 3 AugustInvesco QQQ Trust Series IBATS:QQQpakoumalQQQ is attempting to transition from a liquidation rebound into a tradable recover Neutral-bullish early in the week & conditional Still in a daily downtrend Monday–Tuesday Relief bid tests $690–$700, helped by lower oil & modestly positive Sunday futures Tuesday night–Wednesday AMD & SPCX determine whether the semi/AI rebound broadens or fails Friday's NFP determines whether yields validate or reverse the equity recovery The QQQ range is approximately $668–$704, matching both the 7 August option-implied move & the major technical boundaries A weekly close above $700–$703 would materially improve the outlook & a daily close below $674–$675 would indicate the rebound is failing 1. Controlled rebound into resistance (45%) $688 → $693 → $699–$704 2. Range/base development (30%) $675–$700 3. Rejection & renewed downside (25%) $696–$700 rejection → $680 → $668/$661 Monday 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing PMI The most market-sensitive components will be prices paid, employment & new orders Strong headline + elevated prices — yields higher, initially negative for QQQ & supportive of SPY cyclicals Weak headline + falling prices — yields lower, supportive of duration & QQQ Weak growth + high prices — stagflationary, the worst combination for equities After the close — PLTR earnings Given its AI exposure & valuation, the result will affect AI sentiment, but AMD remains the more important index-level semi catalyst (link to full analysis in bio) The post-FOMC market is highly sensitive to policy interpretation, any emphasis on inflation persistence or labor-market strength in Lisa Cook's speech could move yields Tuesday 10:00 AM — JOLTS job openings This matters because the market is currently interpreting strong labor data as potentially hawkish Hot JOLTS — upside pressure on yields; likely QQQ headwind Softer JOLTS without a collapse in hiring — best outcome for growth stocks Abrupt deterioration — yields may fall, but recession risk could pressure IWM After the close — AMD & SPCX (link to full analysis in bio) This is the most important earnings window for QQQ this week AMD will determine whether the recent semi liquidation was an exhaustion event that created value, or the start of a broader AI hardware de-rating For QQQ, AMD’s guidance, data-center growth, margins & accelerator demand matter more than the headline EPS beat SPCX adds another high-beta AI/capital-expenditure read-through Wednesday 10:00 AM — ISM Services Services prices & employment are particularly important because the Fed remains concerned about inflation persistence LLY earnings This is more important for SPY than QQQ due to its index weight & healthcare exposure Wednesday could produce the week’s largest gap because it combines AMD/SPCX reactions with ISM Services Thursday 8:30 AM — Preliminary productivity & unit labor costs Higher productivity & contained labor costs would be a favorable combination Supports earnings margins, reduces inflation pressure & helps cap yields Weak productivity with high unit labor costs would be negative for both bonds & growth multiples Friday 8:30 AM — July employment report Current published consensus is approximately +83,000 nonfarm payrolls & unemployment around 4.2%–4.3% This is the most important macro event of the week 40K–100K, unemployment stable — yields↓, QQQ bullish Above 150K with firm wages — yields↑, QQQ vulnerable, SPY may initially outperform Negative/near-zero jobs with unemployment jump — yields fall sharply, initial QQQ bounce possible, then growth scare Soft payrolls with contained wages — yields lower. most favorable for duration/growth The Fed’s recent hold was interpreted as hawkish & inflation remains elevated, so an upside payroll surprise risks reviving rate-hike expectations The stronger RTY futures reading early Sunday is encouraging after IWM’s Friday underperformance, but Sunday liquidity is thin & the signal requires confirmation during Monday’s cash session Oil is falling sharply amid signs of possible US–Iran de-escalation & reports that Washington paused contemplated military action Gulf markets also responded positively Sunday That is supportive because lower oil reduces near-term inflation anxiety, removes pressure from long-duration assets, improves the odds that yields stabilize & helps rate-sensitive small caps However, Iran has disputed parts of the reported diplomatic progress, so oil remains an event-driven risk rather than a resolved catalyst The weekly primary trend remains bullish QQQ is above its rising weekly averages, well above the prior major breakout near $637 & approximately 8% below the $748.65 high The weekly chart is undergoing an intermediate correction vs secular trend reversal $661–$675 correction demand $637–$650 major weekly support & rising intermediate average $700–$713 is former value & structural resistance A weekly close below $637–$641 would represent much more serious technical deterioration The daily structure remains bearish given lower high & lower low, price below declining 20d & 50d averages The bounce from $661 is a meaningful LTF reversal, but QQQ still must reclaim ~$697 or the 20d EMA ~$701 is the 50d & hourly long-term average $709–$713 is the prior breakdown area & volume-profile resistance The highest-volume overhead area is around $710–$713 Even after reclaiming $700, QQQ would face another substantial supply area there The hourly structure is improving Sell-side sweep at $661.14, displacement to approximately $692, higher low near $682–$684 & short MA turning upward, but Friday’s rally stalled below $692–$700 Means the hourly MSS is intact while above $680–$682, but the larger hourly trend isn't bullish until QQQ accepts above $693 & then $700 SPY is the strongest index structurally It closed above the 20d average near $743, the 50d average near $739 & back inside its former value region SPY’s main resistance is $747–$750 Support $739–$743, then $732–$734 → $725 SPY’s structure argues against an immediate broad-market breakdown It also means that if QQQ receives a positive AMD & payroll reaction, SPY can provide index-level stability IWM remains the weak link Friday’s close near $290 was below the 20d average near $293, near the 50d average & accompanied by meaningful downside put positioning IWM needs to reclaim $291–$293, then $295–$297 A break below $288 exposes $285, where the largest 7 August put OI sits If Sunday’s RTY strength holds Monday & IWM accepts above $293, that would be an important breadth improvement If RTY’s overnight gain fades & IWM loses $288–$290, the market remains narrow & defensive Calculated from the midpoint of the ATM call & put as of Friday's close 7 August QQQ ±18 or ±2.6% → $668–$704 SPY±10 or ±1.3% → $735–$755 IWM ±6 or ±1.9% → $285–296 14 August QQQ ±25 or ±3.6% → $661–$711 SPY ±15 or ±2% → $730–$760 IWM ±8 or ±2.8% → $282–$298 The QQQ upper boundary near $704 aligns with the daily MA cluster, the 50% retracement of the July decline, the $700 call wall & the hourly $700–$701 resistance The lower boundary near $668 lies just above the $661 liquidity lowTraders continue to pay materially more for downside protection than upside exposure The rebound has reduced panic, but the options market hasn't accepted that the low is secure $690 is the immediate pin $700 is the primary upside wall $710 is the next upside target if $700 breaks $660 is the principal downside wall $645–$650 contains substantial crash-protection interest A sustained trade above $690 should reduce RV & pull price toward $700 Failure below $685 increases the probability of faster movement toward $675–$670 Below $660, dealer hedging could amplify downside movement toward $650–$645 The 7 August option structure is more stable for SPY given the expected move only ±1.3%, major calls at $750 & $760, major downside puts at $730, $720 & $710 SPY is likely to act as a stabilizer unless the employment report produces a major yield shock IWM’s 7 August put wall is at $285, followed by $280 & $275 $295–$300 is upside resistance $285 is the likely downside magnet/support Loss of $285 opens a more volatile downside regime Monday — $690 test The most likely Monday path is a gap or early push toward $690–$693 Bullish confirmation requires hold above $685 after the open, break $690 & hourly acceptance above $693 A gap above $690 that immediately loses $685 would be a warning that Sunday’s move was primarily geopolitical short covering Tuesday — positioning ahead of AMD QQQ may gravitate toward $690–$700 ahead of AMD because of the large $690 & $700 call concentrations I'd expect reduced intraday follow-through, choppier price action & IV remaining supported into the close Wednesday — largest earnings reaction A strong AMD guide could produce QQQ gap through $700, SMH-led continuation & a $707–$713 test An inadequate guide could create rejection from $696–$700, gap back toward $680–$675 & renewed semi underperformance Thursday — digestion Likely consolidation as the market positions for payrolls Friday — range expansion The jobs report can drive QQQ to either weekly expected-move boundary Bullish data interpretation $700–$704 Hawkish/negative interpretation $668–$675 My base case is a QQQ test of $696–$704 this week, not an immediate return to the highs given the current $685–$690 area is the middle of the decision area & doesn't offer an attractive chase entry