AUDJPY 4HR CHARTAUD/JPYOANDA:AUDJPYShavyfxhubAUDJPY 4H Chart Analysis (Shavyfxhub Strategy) + Full Macro Context 1. Chart Structure (Shavyfxhub Style) Price has been making consistent lower highs along the red descending trendline (DTL). Multiple RT/RS (role reversal) labels mark previous support turning into resistance. Key Levels: Supply Roof: The long-term descending red channel resistance + the cluster around 111.90 – 112.00 (recent rejection zone with “bar” labels). Immediate resistance: Horizontal red zone near 111.27 – 111.60. Demand Floors: Broken demand around 111.00–110.60 Next visible demand zones lower (projected paths point toward 110.00 and below). Current Price Action (≈ 110.96): Price has broken lower aggressively from the descending channel. The red projected paths on the right side show continued downside pressure. Structure remains bearish as long as price stays below the descending trendline and the 111.90–112.00 supply roof. Bias: Short-term bearish. Look for continued selling or weak corrective rallies into the supply roof for potential short setups. A strong reclaim and close above the descending channel would be required to flip the structure. 2. Interest Rates & Differential Central Bank,Current Policy Rate,Status RBA (Australia),4.35%,Held (last decision June 2026) BoJ (Japan),≈ 1.00%,Held (July 30–31 2026 meeting) This still supports a positive carry for long AUD/JPY in theory, but the chart is currently dominated by technical selling and risk sentiment rather than pure carry. 3. Bond Yields & Differential (as of early August 2026) Australia 10-year yield: ≈ 4.97% Japan 10-year JGB yield: ≈ 2.84% – 2.85% Bond Yield Differential: ≈ +2.12% in favour of Australia. The yield advantage remains solid for AUD, but it has not prevented the recent technical breakdown on AUDJPY. 4. Heads of Central Banks Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Governor Michele Bullock Bank of Japan (BoJ): Governor Kazuo Ueda 5. Upcoming Economic Docket / Key Meetings RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 11 August 2026 (announcement at 14:30 AEST). Markets currently price a very high probability of a hold at 4.35%. BoJ next Monetary Policy Meeting: 17–18 September 2026. Other near-term focus: Australian inflation and labour data ahead of the RBA meeting, plus any BoJ commentary on the pace of further normalisation. Summary (Shavyfxhub + Macro) Technical (Shavyfxhub): Bearish descending channel, lower highs, recent breakdown. Supply roof at the descending trendline / 111.90–112.00. Demand floors below are being tested. Bias remains down while below the channel. Macro: Still solid interest-rate and bond-yield advantage for AUD (+3.35% policy rate gap, +2.12% 10-year yield gap). However, price is currently ignoring the carry and following the technical structure lower. Next major catalyst: RBA decision on 11 August.