NQ Weekly Outlook – Week 31 of 2026 (03-07 AUG)E-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI:NQ1!UA_CAPITALUA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics Total Trades Taken: 7 Winning Trades: 6 Losing Trades: 1 Win Rate: 85.7% Index Options: 4 Trades (3 Wins / 1 Loss) Futures Desk: 2 Trades (2 Wins — ES & NQ) Tactical Equities: 1 Trade (1 Win — AAPL) NQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush. The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish. This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both buyers and sellers competing aggressively for control before the market commits to its next larger directional move. Given the potential for sharp acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our primary focus this week will remain on disciplined execution, aggressive profit-taking, and strict risk management. Rather than attempting to predict the next move, we will continue reacting to price only after confirmation at our predefined key levels. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 Key Level: 28,526 Trigger: Bullish 1-hour reclaim. Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points. Invalidation: 4-hour close below 28,170. Long Scenario 2 Flip Level: 28,380 Trigger: Bullish 4-hour reclaim followed by a successful retest. Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points. Invalidation: 4-hour close below 29,156. Short Scenario 1 Flip Level: 28,156 This level forms the lower boundary of the Flip Zone. Trigger: Bearish rejection after retesting the area. Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points. Invalidation: 4-hour close above 29,380. Short Scenario 2 Main Supply: 29,932 Trigger: Bearish rejection after retesting the zone. Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points. Invalidation: 4-hour close above 30,134. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each trigger carefully before entering a position. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Invalidation levels are unique to each scenario. Read them carefully. 6. SPY and QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES and NQ futures charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours). This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.