Logic Behind Bearish PressureGoldOANDA:XAUUSDFelix-WarrenLogic Behind Bearish Pressure (The dominant market force currently determining the extent of the rebound) 1. US economic resilience exceeds expectations; hawkish Fed expectations resurge Overnight, ISM manufacturing data strengthened significantly, shattering market expectations of a sustained US economic slowdown. With both the labor market and manufacturing sector recovering, the pace of disinflation may slow; the Federal Reserve lacks sufficient grounds to pivot quickly toward easing. High real interest rates continue to suppress gold valuations, acting as the primary bearish factor for this rebound. 2. Geopolitical safe-haven premium fades; lack of sustained bullish momentum Gold's previous gains relied heavily on safe-haven capital driven by Middle East conflicts. As the market adapts to the pattern of "verbal sparring and limited conflict" between the US and Iran, safe-haven funds are gradually withdrawing. Gold has lost its upward momentum, making the rebound highly susceptible to profit-taking. 3. Multiple layers of overhead resistance exert pressure The 4085–4110 range represents a recent zone of high trading volume, where significant "trapped" selling pressure has accumulated. Last Monday’s rapid pullback after spiking to 4082 confirmed the effectiveness of resistance in this zone; without a major bullish catalyst, the bulls will struggle to break through this range decisively. 4. Weekly trend remains within a downward oscillation channel On a weekly basis, the gold price remains suppressed below the 60-week moving average; the rebound is merely a corrective move following a sharp decline rather than a trend reversal. Until the price firmly establishes itself above 4180, the medium-term bearish structure remains intact. All rebounds are classified as fluctuations within a range, and blindly chasing long positions is ill-advised.