XAUUSD — Liquidity Expansion SetupGoldOANDA:XAUUSDSophie_LaneGold opened the week with a firmer tone as falling oil prices eased part of the recent inflation pressure, while a softer US dollar provided additional support. However, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated Treasury yields may continue to limit the strength of the recovery. The Federal Reserve recently kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, although three members preferred an immediate increase. June headline PCE remained elevated at 3.7%, while core PCE stood at 3.3%, keeping XAUUSD highly sensitive to incoming US data. Attention now turns to today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s US employment report. Technical View On the H1 chart, XAUUSD is compressing between a descending liquidity trendline and rising internal range support. Price is trading near the EMA 34 and EMA 89 around 4,062, showing that the market is currently balanced. RSI is also holding near 49, confirming neutral momentum while price remains inside the compression structure. The MACD panel is not visible on the chart, so no live crossover can be confirmed. I would use a bullish MACD crossover or expanding positive histogram only as additional confirmation after price reacts from demand. Important Key Levels EMA equilibrium: 4,060–4,063 Demand and FVG confluence: 4,025–4,035 Premium FVG and bearish OB: 4,115–4,125 External liquidity: 4,157–4,165 Trading Scenario My primary view remains bullish, but I prefer a liquidity-driven pullback before the next expansion. A controlled retracement into 4,025–4,035, where the demand zone, FVG and internal range support converge, could provide a stronger base for buyers. Bullish rejection from this area, followed by RSI reclaiming 50 and positive MACD confirmation, may support an expansion toward 4,115–4,125. Sustained acceptance above this premium zone could later expose the external liquidity around 4,157–4,165. Buy/Sell Condition Bullish condition: Price defends 4,025–4,035, reclaims the EMA cluster and confirms improving momentum. Bearish condition: Sustained H1 acceptance below the demand zone and internal range support would invalidate the immediate bullish scenario. Overall View XAUUSD remains inside a liquidity compression structure, with RSI and the EMA cluster reflecting temporary market equilibrium. I am watching for a retracement into demand before considering the next bullish expansion. Confirmation remains essential while price is trapped between both trendlines. Do you expect XAUUSD to sweep 4,025–4,035 before expanding higher, or break the compression directly?