EURUSD - 04.08.2026Euro vs United States DollarTICKMILL:EURUSDSinnSeedGood afternoon, dear subscribers. At last, we’ve finally seen some movement after a month of sideways trading. At the moment, I’m considering selling this pair for several reasons. The conflict over Iran has dragged on, and we have already repeatedly seen announcements about negotiations followed by their collapse. Trump is not talking about a complete end to pressure — he is talking about a pause if there is a “quick deal,” and supposedly an agreement has already been reached. Tehran rejects the claim that it came to the table under U.S. pressure. We’ve heard this before. Everyone wants to come out of the deal “saving face.” The U.S. is showing both diplomatic initiative and pressure. Iran refuses terms that would look like capitulation. Israel insists on ending Iran’s nuclear program and is ready to escalate if necessary. I believe that even if the strait is reopened, the conflict will flare up again because they will fail to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. According to the news, CPI / PCE inflation is coming in above expectations. The higher the chance that the Fed will not cut rates or may even tighten policy, the stronger the dollar. Escalation around Iran supports the dollar through safe-haven demand and rising yields / uncertainty. If oil rises because of the Middle East, the market fears a new wave of inflation. That reduces the chances of a rate cut. According to CME FedWatch as of August 4, 2026, for the September 16, 2026 meeting, the market is pricing in a 43.1% chance of rates staying at 3.50–3.75% and a 56.9% chance of a hike to 3.75–4.00% — meaning the market is pricing in virtually no chance of a rate cut. Before September, the probability of a rate cut is low. By the end of the year, it is no longer zero, but it is still not the base-case scenario. If we look at the yearly chart, the main resistance level for the pair is 1.1540. The first downside target is 1.1240. Add to this the talk of a possible mobilization in Russia this autumn and a new round of escalation, which would add a European geopolitical risk premium — and that is usually worse for the euro than for the dollar. If, against this backdrop, the market starts pricing in weak eurozone growth, a dovish ECB, and a more hawkish Fed, then a move toward 1.09 becomes likely. Given the positive swap on short positions in this pair, with low leverage I consider a long-term short position to be a fairly good option. What do you think? Yours, #SinnSeed