$NBIS (Nebius): the DAILY chart - OVERHEATED, I'm shorting $295Nebius Group N.V. Class ABATS:NBISColdBloodedCharterNBIS (Nebius Group N.V.) I wrote about Nebius once before, exactly a month ago, when the stock was trading around $220. In short, the chart was starting to show signs of an upcoming correction, but not quite yet - there was still some room left for the rally to continue and too few signs of a top forming (at least a local one). Now I see a lot more. Starting with the weekly chart, which is extremely overheated. RSI is above 92, while the daily chart below sits at 81. More important than the RSI reading itself, in my opinion, is the fact that since May every new price high has come with a bearish divergence. A series of divergences is obviously a much stronger argument than a single divergence, which gets invalidated far too often. Moving on, a Rising Wedge is forming, a classic warning pattern that often appears near tops. The actual breakdown level is much lower however, below $210, making it not particularly useful for timing purposes. Further, in my previous post I wrote about chart gravity - excessive distance from major moving averages eventually tends to resolve itself through mean reversion. And the main green 200 MA is absurdly far away, sitting at $123.9. A magnet. Another argument: Elliott Waves. The fifth wave has most likely completed and a correction should be next. Then we have volume. The lower panel visually shows smaller and smaller green candles, while red candles are starting to gain the upper hand. Pretty self-explanatory. The second panel from the top, OBV, gives a much better view of volume dynamics. Here the picture is very similar to RSI - a series of bearish divergences. That's distribution. So where is this distribution coming from if the chart still looks very bullish? Higher highs, higher lows, although the current high is only marginally above the previous one - another argument for a possible top. You have to dig deeper. And this brings me to the most interesting part, something very few people pay attention to. Insiders. The entire management team has been aggressively unloading shares onto an overheated retail crowd. The price rally has been ongoing since March, while the people with the best information available - because they literally run the company - are using the increased liquidity to make massive exits. That's how this game works. In order to sell huge amounts of stock, you need a crowd willing to buy it. You need euphoria. You need liquidity. You need exit liquidity. I'm attaching a summary of insider activity, and honestly, the longer I write this post, the more convinced I become that I can comfortably short this thing. The odds look quite favorable, around 75% in my loose personal assessment. Of course I wouldn't recommend it to anyone - this is not a signals group or signals page. Besides, everyone knows you can't catch the exact top. Position size would be half-sized as well. I still respect the bullish market structure, and on top of that we have FOMC in a few hours. I wouldn't want to get caught on the wrong side of a potentially dovish speech from the new Fed Chair. That's probably the only thing that could save NBIS from the larger correction that seems to be hanging in the air right now, in my opinion. 👽💙