NVIDIA vs. QQQ: IS THERE A LIMIT TO AI ACCELERATIONNVDA/QQQBATS:NVDA/BATS:QQQPandorraResearchNvidia's three-year AI-trend of dominance has not only reached a point where simply growing is no longer enough—it needs to impress again—but is also taking another confident step toward weakening. The chart is beginning to doubt this is possible. Since 2023, NVDA/QQQ has been a distillation of the AI narrative. Nvidia has consistently outperformed the Nasdaq 100 tech benchmark, forming a pure uptrend while respecting the upward support of the uptrend. This was a rare case where the fundamentals, positioning, and technology all moved in the same direction. By 2026, the situation had changed, yet not dramatically, but fundamentally. The ratio stopped making new highs and entered a stagnation phase in July 2025. This is reflected in the chart's compression of the range just above the key trendline. Upward momentum is fading, pullbacks are deepening, and the structure is losing its asymmetry in favor of growth. This is the first signal: the leader is no longer widening its lead. The RSI is stable in the neutral zone. This is important: there is no overheating or strength. The market has stopped paying a premium for the same story. Now, to the 5-year moving average, which we've added. It's not here as an entry signal, but as an indicator of the magnitude of the deviation. And this is perhaps the main visual imbalance on the chart: the current NVDA/QQQ values remain significantly above the long-term trajectory. All the AI euphoria of recent years is an exponential widening of the spread (speculation, hype, crowd-funding) and the entire AI narrative around this 5-year moving average. It's important to understand that such widenings, no matter how hyped the asset and how bullish the market, do not last indefinitely. In the absence of new, even more powerful drivers, and if overall market conditions worsen, they will inevitably collapse over time, revealing their weakness. Fundamentally, this scenario currently appears more realistic. Nvidia's market capitalization of over $5 trillion means that the company has already "eaten up" a significant portion of future growth. At the same time, for NVDA/QQQ to continue growing, Nvidia must continue to outperform the entire Nasdaq—a task with decreasing probability as the base expands. The key point is the current ascending support. Multiple tests plus a lack of reaction mean the risk of a breakout. Then, instead of a collapse, a more unpleasant scenario for longs will begin: a protracted normalization through underperformance, followed by a gradual return to values closer to the 5-year moving average. Practical conclusions: NVDA/QQQ is currently not about growth, but about the distance to normal. And for the first time in three years, the market has begun to close this gap. Technically, that happening breakthrough below the 52-week low level in the Nvidia/Nasdaq 100 ratio certainly accelerates these processes.