Bitcoin short squeeze from $60k to $110k is VERY likely. Part 1.Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDpistissophiacapitalFirst off, sentiment. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general have been in a boredom/frustration phase. Other than the pullback since October 2025, nothing major has happened — and before that, price had been consolidating around ATH for more than a year. No major news, no significant retail participation, Google Trends at lows. Everyone is focused on AI, semiconductors, and the SpaceX IPO. These are perfect conditions for a major surprise move. Second, MA200 W1. This is the 200-week Moving Average — a proxy for the 4-year average Bitcoin price. This level determines whether we are in a bull or bear market and is watched by every major investor, including institutions and algorithms. This is THE most important price level, and price has always reacted very strongly to it. Every major pullback stopped exactly here, and every major bull market started from this level — in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022–2023. It is also very likely that the famous Bitcoin 4-year cycle has nothing to do with the halving, but rather with MA200 W1 itself. When we plot exact halving dates on the chart, bull markets do not correlate precisely with halving dates — and the 2024 halving did not result in any outstanding volatile moves, with price simply drifting upward within an existing bull market. On the other hand, every major bull market correlates with price touching MA200 W1. This is the strongest price level — much stronger than any other support or resistance. Whatever happens to Bitcoin price, this is the level where major moves develop. Add the current sentiment on top of that, and we are in perfect conditions for volatility. Bitcoin price currently sits exactly at MA200 W1 for the first time in 3 years, since 2023. There are two scenarios: either price bottoms here and a new bull market begins, or price breaks down through this level — which would likely trigger a major crash and a cascade of liquidations. However, regardless of which scenario plays out, MA200 W1 is too strong to be broken on the first attempt. My idea is that before any bear or bull market fully develops, price will bounce off this level toward the first major resistance, which sits around $108k–$110k. To recap: boredom/frustration sentiment + price at MA200 W1 for the first time in 3 years = conditions ripe for major volatile moves. I believe the move will be to the upside. This is the first building block of my thesis. I will expand on the remaining blocks in Part 2 and Part 3.