NEIL MACFARQUHAR2026年6月15日乌克兰持续遭受轰炸的康斯坦丁尼夫卡市郊区，摄于今年早些时候。 Tyler Hicks/The New York TimesPresident Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, both resist the idea that ostensibly weaker powers fought them to a stalemate, with the two leaders leaning on negotiations to win the capitulation that they failed to secure in battle.特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京都不愿承认，看似更弱小的对手将他们拖入了僵局。这两位领导人都试图通过谈判获得他们未能在战场上赢得的屈服。Iran and Ukraine have pushed back robustly against this “might makes right” mentality, with top officials adopting an even more defiant tone in recent days.伊朗和乌克兰则强硬抵制这种“强权即公理”的思维方式，两国高层官员近期的语气甚至更为强硬。In an open letter to Mr. Putin this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine derided Mr. Putin for clinging to power as he aged. “You did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine, and you did not foresee that things would go this far,” Mr. Zelensky wrote.在本月致普京的一封公开信中，乌克兰总统泽连斯基嘲讽普京年事渐高却仍恋栈不去。泽连斯基写道：“你没有预料到乌克兰会进行全面抵抗，你也没有预见到事情会发展到这个地步。”After Iran unleashed a missile barrage against Israel last week in retaliation for attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament and Iran’s top negotiator, threatened more. “Until there is a sincere commitment to restoring trust, Iran’s response will not change,” he wrote on X.在伊朗上周为报复黎巴嫩真主党遭袭向以色列发射多枚导弹之后，伊朗议会议长、首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫发出了进一步威胁。他在X平台上写道：“除非各方真心诚意致力于恢复互信，否则伊朗的回应不会改变。”空袭警报响起后，以色列民众躲避来袭的伊朗导弹，上周摄于拉马特甘。Their recalcitrance reflects the reality of two wars in stasis, with a profound lack of trust all around stymying progress.他们这种不妥协的态度反映了两场战争陷入僵局的现实，各方之间严重缺乏信任，阻碍了局势的推进。Talks to find peace in Ukraine hit an impasse right before the Iran war started, with Ukraine demanding more robust security guarantees for ceding territory than Russia was willing to accept. Diplomacy has mostly produced prisoner swaps between the sides. The United States, once trying to play the main mediator, has shifted its focus to Iran.在伊朗战争爆发前夕，乌克兰和平谈判已陷入僵局。乌克兰方面要求，若要以放弃领土为代价，必须获得比俄罗斯愿意接受的更为强有力的安全保障。迄今为止，外交努力主要只促成了双方交换战俘。曾试图充当主要调解人的美国如今已将注意力转向伊朗问题。American and Iranian officials now say a peace deal with Iran could be at hand. But it appears that it will initially consist of a framework for negotiations that will push the thorniest issues, like Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, down the road. It is expected to allow for at least the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.美伊官员目前均表示，与伊朗的和平协议可能即将达成。但初步看来，协议可能首先是一个谈判框架，将伊朗核计划、解除制裁等最棘手的问题留待以后解决。预计该协议至少将允许暂时重开霍尔木兹海峡的航运。“Both conflicts have produced a similar outcome: a weaker power has trapped a stronger one in a costly confrontation,” Fiona Hill, who ran Russian and European affairs at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, wrote in a policy paper for the Brookings Institution this week. “Like Putin, Trump did not have a plan for what would happen next.”“两场冲突产生了相似的结果：一个较弱的国家将一个较强的国家拖入了一场代价高昂的对抗，”曾在特朗普首届政府担任国家安全委员会俄罗斯与欧洲事务主任的菲奥娜·希尔在本周为布鲁金斯学会撰写的一篇政策论文中写道。“和普京一样，特朗普也没有为接下来会发生什么做好计划。”The root of the issue is that both presidents sparked wars with limited understanding of the opposing side, Ms. Hill said in an interview. “Both projected their own centralized views of their own roles onto Iran and Ukraine, so they thought if they could decapitate the system it would fall,” she said.希尔在接受采访时表示，问题的根源在于，两位总统在对对方缺乏深入了解的情况下就贸然挑起战争。“他们都将自己高度集中的权力观投射到伊朗和乌克兰身上，认为只要能够将体系斩首，它就会崩溃。”Mr. Putin did not anticipate fierce Ukrainian resistance, for example; Mr. Trump ignored admonitions that Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz, and appeared to underestimate Iran’s capacity to retaliate and inflict damage on America’s allies in the region. Nor did the Iranian people rise up against their authoritarian leaders, as Israel and the United States had urged them to do.例如，普京没有预料到乌克兰会进行顽强抵抗；特朗普则无视了有关伊朗可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡的警告，而且似乎低估了伊朗实施报复并对美国地区盟友造成损害的能力。伊朗人民也没有像以色列和美国所敦促的那样起来反抗他们的威权领导人。While the bombing campaigns of the United States and Russia have had devastating effects, analysts noted, air power alone has not proved decisive.分析人士指出，尽管美国和俄罗斯的轰炸行动产生了毁灭性影响，但单靠空中力量始终未能取得决定性胜利。乌克兰某地，乌克兰士兵准备向俄罗斯境内的目标发射“龙”式无人机，摄于上月。“Although Russia’s aggressive invasion of its neighbor differs from Washington’s goal of reining in Iran’s expansionist threat, both states are finding it equally hard to align their end goals with the means available to achieve them,” James F. Jeffrey, a fellow at the Washington Institute and a former Middle East envoy, wrote in Foreign Affairs.“尽管俄罗斯侵略邻国与华盛顿遏制伊朗扩张性威胁的目标性质迥异，两国却同样难以将各自的终极目标与手中可用的手段有效对接，”华盛顿研究所研究员、前中东特使詹姆斯·杰弗里在《外交事务》杂志上写道。Ukraine managed to halt Russian troop advances in part by producing next-generation drones, changing the face of modern warfare, while the United States has shown no desire to deploy troops inside Iran.乌克兰通过研发新一代无人机成功遏制了俄军的推进，并改变了现代战争的面貌；美国则完全没有表现出向伊朗境内部署地面部队的意愿。Lack of compromise has prolonged both wars. The United States and Russia have presented extensive demands to the other side, but the list of what their adversaries get in return is short. Mr. Putin, in particular, has not budged from his maximalist demands, which include taking land his army has been unable to capture.缺乏妥协延长了这两场战争。美国和俄罗斯都向对方提出了长长的要求清单，但给予对手的回报却很少。尤其是普京，他从未放弃自己的最大化要求，其中包括索取俄军至今未能占领的土地。Mr. Trump has also repeatedly revised terms already agreed with the mediators, frustrating the Iranians.特朗普也多次推翻与调解方已达成的条款，令伊朗不满。The United States harmed the process “with contradictory messages, frequent changes in positions and demands, as well as repeated violations of the cease-fire,” Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said last week after fighting sputtered back to life.伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃上周在战火重新燃起后表示，“通过相互矛盾的信息、频繁改变立场和要求，以及一再违反停火协议”，美国损害了谈判进程。Each revision erodes a little more of Iran’s confidence that Mr. Trump will stick to an eventual deal, analysts said.分析人士称，每一次反复都进一步蚕食伊朗对特朗普会遵守最终协议的信心。Yet Mr. Trump has repeatedly declared that a resolution is just around the corner, as he did Thursday after calling off yet another offensive.特朗普却一再宣称解决方案已经近在眼前。在上周四取消了又一次军事行动后，他再次作出了这样的表态。伊朗民众在毁于袭击的公寓楼前，4月摄于卡拉季。None of the shifting set of goals that he predicted at the beginning of the conflict — which he said would take only a few weeks to achieve — has been realized.他在冲突开始时预测的各种不断变化的目标——他曾说只需几周就能实现——没有一个实现。The same is true for Mr. Putin. Invading Ukraine, the Kremlin had expected it would quickly seize Kyiv, install a pliant regime and be welcomed by the Ukrainian people. That was more than four years ago. Despite a death toll estimated at more than 350,000 soldiers, Moscow has not fully occupied three of the four Ukrainian provinces that it now claims.普京也是如此。入侵乌克兰时，克里姆林宫原本预计能够迅速攻克基辅，扶植一个傀儡政权，并受到乌克兰民众欢迎。那已经是四年多以前的事了。尽管已有超过35万名士兵死亡，莫斯科至今仍未完全占领它如今声称拥有主权的四个乌克兰州中的三个。Asked last week about Mr. Zelensky’s latest overture for peace, Mr. Putin declared that “military operations” — he still avoids calling it a war — “will end when we achieve our goals.”上周被问及泽连斯基最新的和平提议时，普京宣称，“军事行动将在我们实现目标后结束。”他仍然避免称此为战争。In reality, both Washington and Moscow “have been defeated in the pursuit of the goals that they had,” Ms. Hill said.然而现实是，华盛顿和莫斯科“都在追求各自目标的过程中遭遇了失败”，希尔表示。The circumstances of the two wars do not entirely match. Ukraine had not threatened Russia, while Iran had confronted the United States ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution through terrorist attacks, proxy wars and other assaults on American interests.两场战争的背景并不完全相同。乌克兰此前并未威胁俄罗斯，而伊朗自1979年伊斯兰革命以来一直通过恐怖袭击、代理人战争以及其他针对美国利益的行动持续与美国对抗。The United States did not have territorial designs on Iran, while Mr. Putin has occupied almost 20 percent of Ukraine. Militarily, Russia began destabilizing Ukraine by annexing Crimea and fueling a separatist movement starting in 2014. The United States largely avoided a war with Iran until its 12-day bombing campaign last June undertaken with Israel.美国并无占领伊朗领土的野心，普京却已吞并乌克兰近20%的领土。在军事层面，俄罗斯早在2014年便通过吞并克里米亚、扶植分裂主义运动开始破坏乌克兰的稳定。而美国在很大程度上避免与伊朗正面开战，直到去年6月与以色列一起进行了为期12天的轰炸行动。乌克兰一条覆盖了防无人机网的马路，1月摄于康斯坦丁尼夫卡。Iran is more inclined than Ukraine to make a deal because it faces more dire economic conditions and receives almost no outside support, said Vali R. Nasr, a professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.约翰斯·霍普金斯大学国际问题高级研究学院国际事务教授瓦利·纳斯尔表示，伊朗比乌克兰更倾向于达成协议，因为它面临更严峻的经济状况，并且几乎得不到外部支持。At the same time, he added, the United States and Israel failed in their strategic objectives in two consecutive wars, in June and February. “So the Iranians want the United States, basically, to come to the table with the realization that they’re not defeated, and the military conquest of Iran is not in the cards,” he said.但与此同时，他补充道，美国和以色列在今年2月和6月连续两场战争中都未能实现战略目标。“因此，伊朗人希望美国基本上能带着‘他们没有被打败，军事征服伊朗是不可能的’这种认识来到谈判桌前。”The main American and Israeli priority is for Iran to abandon its nuclear program, including surrendering its highly enriched uranium, so it can never develop a nuclear weapon.美国和以色列的主要优先事项是伊朗放弃核计划，包括交出高浓缩铀，从而永久封堵其发展核武器的可能性。Iran has resisted making those concessions, and any resolution on that issue could come months or years down the road. Iran is also asking for longtime American economic sanctions lifted, along with the current naval blockade, and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets.伊朗一直拒绝做出这些让步，关于这个问题的任何解决方案都可能需要数月或数年的时间。伊朗还要求解除美国的长期经济制裁以及当前的海上封锁，并放行240亿美元的冻结资产。Iran wants to use the framework under discussion to test whether Mr. Trump will really implement an accord, Mr. Nasr said.纳斯尔表示，伊朗希望利用正在讨论的框架来检验特朗普是否会真正履行协议。“They want to see whether he actually will lift the blockade,” he said. “They want to see whether he can maintain cease-fire in Lebanon, and they want to see whether he will deliver some of their money.” If all that happens, they would be willing to negotiate something bigger, he added.“他们想看看他是否真的会解除封锁，”他说。“他们想看看他能否维持黎巴嫩的停火，还想看看他能否兑现还给他们部分资金的承诺。”他补充说，如果所有这些都实现了，他们才愿意就更大的问题进行谈判。本月，黎巴嫩纳巴提耶附近，以色列的一次空袭击中了博福特城堡前的区域。In Ukraine, Russia wants at a minimum that Ukraine withdraw from the strategically important sliver of Donetsk province from which it has been unable to dislodge them, with Russia even losing some ground in recent weeks.在乌克兰问题上，俄罗斯至少希望乌克兰撤出顿涅茨克州具有重要战略价值的一小块区域——俄罗斯一直未能将乌军从那里赶走，最近几周甚至失去了一些地盘。In both wars, Mr. Trump has dented American credibility, Ms. Hill said. He failed to fulfill his vow to negotiate a peace settlement in Ukraine while undermining NATO in the process, and he did not achieve his main goals in Iran, or protect Gulf allies from Iranian retaliation.希尔表示，在这两场战争中，特朗普都削弱了美国的信誉。他既未兑现迅速结束乌克兰战争的承诺，还在此过程中削弱了北约；同时也未能在伊朗实现他的主要目标，或保护海湾盟友免遭伊朗报复。Moscow and Kyiv had each hoped that Mr. Trump might persuade the other to agree to terms, but now both sides know that they need to look elsewhere for a solution, she said. Mr. Zelensky wrote as much in his letter to Mr. Putin.她说，莫斯科和基辅原本都希望特朗普能够说服对方接受条件，但如今双方都明白，必须另寻解决办法。泽连斯基在给普京的信中也表达了类似的意思。Ultimately, analysts said, the lack of a resolution makes both the United States and Russia appear weak, and could hasten a more decentralized international order.分析人士认为，最终，持续无法解决的僵局会让美国和俄罗斯都显得软弱，并可能加速一个更加分散化的国际秩序的到来。“Deadlock in Ukraine discredits Russia as a global military force,” Ms. Hill wrote in her policy paper. “It corrodes Putin’s patina of indestructibility, in the same way that the stalemate in the Persian Gulf undermines the United States and Trump.”希尔在她的政策论文中写道：“乌克兰战争的僵局削弱了俄罗斯作为全球军事强国的声誉。它侵蚀了普京坚不可摧的光环；波斯湾的僵局则以同样的方式削弱了美国和特朗普。”Sheelagh McNeill和Shirin Hakim对本文有研究贡献。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。