EURAUD Is Trapped Below Major ResistanceEUR/AUDOANDA:EURAUDEdgeTradingJourneyAfter several weeks of recovery, EURAUD has finally reached a critical decision point. From a technical perspective, price has rallied directly into a confluence area composed of a Daily Fair Value Gap, a descending trendline that has been respected since March, and a higher timeframe supply zone. These are exactly the areas where I want to see institutional participation if the broader bearish trend is going to continue. Looking at the Commitment of Traders data, the picture becomes even more interesting. The Euro remains slightly net-long among non-commercial traders, but recent positioning changes reveal a loss of bullish conviction. Large speculators reduced long exposure while simultaneously increasing short positions. This shift suggests that institutional traders are becoming more cautious on further Euro appreciation. On the Australian Dollar side, speculative positioning remains decisively bullish. Although some profit-taking has appeared over the latest reporting period, the overall structure still favors AUD strength relative to EUR. Retail sentiment offers little support for a bullish continuation. The majority of retail traders remain positioned on the long side, with many positions accumulated at significantly higher levels. Historically, this type of positioning tends to provide fuel for further downside rather than sustained rallies. Seasonality remains broadly neutral. Both EUR and AUD historically perform relatively well during June, limiting any significant directional advantage from seasonal flows alone. As long as EURAUD remains below the 1.6510 resistance area, I continue to view the current rebound as a corrective move within a larger bearish trend. A rejection from current levels could open the door toward the 1.6250 demand zone, followed by a potential extension toward 1.6100 and eventually 1.6000.