Macro Data Dashboard Review - June 2026Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal IncomeFRED:TDSPap769With the economy seemingly in a perpetual state of uncertainty this decade, I have decided to make sense of it myself, so I can filter out editorial and political spin. I am sharing my dashboard as an Idea to provide a snapshot at the time of writing for future comparison. Some of these indicators already have received extensive commentary, however I think the context they provide when combined offers a unique perspective, and can give a sharper understanding of major events as they unfold in the future. I will start by breaking down my comments on each indicator and then will give my broad analysis while trying to avoid too much future speculation. 1. US Core PCE USCPCEPIAC - Inflation is still higher than the Fed’s target and above the historical baseline, while still lower than in 2021-2022. While it has been sticky, continued inflation persistence lacks the necessary tailwinds that led to the post-covid surge (Fed providing liquidity to bond market & interest rates at the bottom, which led to extreme YoY GDP growth). This matters little to the general public, who are still upset over cumulative price increases in recent years and above-average YoY inflation growth, especially in volatile categories like Food and Energy (which are not included in PCE). 2. Policy Tightness Gauge $ECONOMICS:USINTR-FRED:UNRATE - Low unemployment and elevated interest rates will persist until pressure in the labor market arises, which there are not current signs of. 3. Household Debt Service Payments TDSP - Compare today’s level to extremes in the mid/late 00’s and 2020. Households are not yet stretched and will likely have capacity to borrow more. 4. Personal Savings Rate PSAVERT - Individuals are saving below the 3-year average rate. Continued weakness could signal individuals have less capacity to absorb financial downturn. 5. Retail Sales YoY USRSYY - Current level is in line with healthy historical levels. 6. Temporary Worker Staffing TEMPHELPS - Below the 50-period average on the monthly chart and flattening out in recent months. Any significant changes here could be an early labor market indicator. 7. Average Hours Worked USAWH - Slightly below average, flattening, and aligned with average historical levels. I would consider this healthy. 8. Average Hourly Earnings USAHEYY - Elevated but flat. Wage growth was also an inflation driver at the start of the decade that is no longer a major factor. 9. Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets WALCL - New Fed Chair Warsh would like to see the balance sheet shrink, however the level remains high and it will be difficult to do so without causing bond yields to rise. Warsh was always a hawk until he sought the nod from the current administration, so we will see how he responds to bond market pressure if it continues. 10. USGDPYY - Healthy GDP growth. 11. Debt to GDP $ECONOMICS:USGD/ECONOMICS:USGDP - High and likely to continue growing without major policy changes that manage to both reduce the size of debt while keeping growth stable - a difficult task in today’s regime. —— To summarize, what my indicators are telling me is that the economy is transitioning into a late-cycle phase but we are not quite there yet. Consumers have been resilient in the face of years of higher rates, and the labor market has cooled to allow GDP growth to remain healthy while blunting the strength of secondary inflation drivers. Things are pretty balanced at the moment, so the question is what will change to create imbalance, which will force the Fed to change its stance? Will the Fed under Warsh’s leadership bend to political pressure to cut rates at the earliest sign of labor market pressure? Will consumers accept higher rates and continue to spend higher proportions of disposable income on debt payments, while saving less and less? Or will the Fed be forced to step in to calm the bond market in order to keep its own debt service payments at manageable levels (which will run counter to its fight against inflation)? The biggest question of all is what the late-cycle stage of this cycle will look like. If I had to make an educated guess based on what I’m seeing today, I think this level of balance could continue for months or even years until certain areas are stretched to their extremes. I could see a scenario where consumers continue to borrow at high rates while keeping low personal savings, which will be stimulative to the economy until people can no longer afford the service payments. With the way things are headed in the US political cycle (right wing populism to left wing populism) this scenario fits the bill for a radical shift if it coincides with labor market instability. I will keep checking this dashboard from time to time, since these indicators update slowly, and will post again whenever imbalances start to form, which based on what I’m seeing, and contrary to popular belief, could take a while.