Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 62 bps (80% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)Fed: 38 bps (40% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 37 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 33 bps (81% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 26 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoJ: 23 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 15 bps (75% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 7 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting)Last week's market pricing hereIf you take a look at last week's pricing, you can notice that the only major change happened on the Fed side. The only takeaway from the FOMC decision was the more hawkish dot plot as the statement didn't contain anything and Fed Chair Warsh refrained from giving forward guidance.The median dot plot surprisingly showed one rate hike this year, with some of those hawkish members expecting even multiple hikes (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectively adopted a tightening bias in the short-term.The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 38 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 40% chance of a hike already in July and 72% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.