EURUSD weekly structure with high degree of accuracy EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDShavyfxhubWeekly structure following FOMC outlook. EURUSD in context. Trading EURUSD won’t be complete without knowing the heads of the central banks. Central Bank Leaders • ECB: President Christine Lagarde • Fed: New Chair Kevin Warsh (succeeded Jerome Powell; first FOMC meeting under his leadership in June 2026 showed a hawkish tilt).  Current Central Bank Interest Rates & Differential • ECB Deposit Facility Rate: 2.25% (raised 25bp in June 2026, first hike since 2023).  • Fed Funds Target Range: 3.50% – 3.75% (held steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in June 2026).  Policy Rate Differential in favor of the USD (Fed higher than ECB). This supports USD strength/carry but has narrowed from prior peaks as the ECB hiked while the Fed paused. Markets are watching for further divergence, with the Fed’s latest projections signaling possible hikes ending 2026 Bond Yield Differential (US10Y vs EU10Y ) • US 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.43% – 4.46%.  • EU10Y Bund Yield: ~2.93%.  A wider positive spread (higher US yields) typically supports USD strength and pressures EURUSD lower via capital flows toward higher-yielding USD assets. Real yield differentials (adjusted for inflation expectations) are also key for EURUSD.  Carry Trade Implications Traders borrow in EUR (lower rate) to invest in USD assets (higher yield), earning the spread minus any FX moves. • This has contributed to USD resilience despite broader dollar weakness narratives earlier in 2026. • In the current environment (Fed holding hawkish, ECB more data-dependent), the carry favors USD, pressuring EURUSD.  Market Structure & Price Action (EURUSD) • Overall Structure: Bearish-to-sideways bias in the near term. • Key Influences on Price Action: • Rate Differential & Yields: Wider US advantage → USD bid, EURUSD offers. • Growth/Policy Divergence: US data resilience + hawkish Fed vs. ECB’s cautious stance. • Bearish pressures (USD strength): Higher US rates/yields, hawkish Fed under Warsh, positive carry. #eurusd