Japan 225:Profit targets reached ;what the rising channel says?Japan 225 IndexTVC:NI225Kearabilwe-NonyanaThis trade has performed precisely according to the trading idea I issued. The 70,000 primary target was achieved on 16 June, while the index went further without any stops right up to the secondary target at 72,000, which occurred on 19 June. The secondary target has been reached on the offer, based on the mid-price approach. The reason for the continuation of the rally is the same as the cause of the move, namely the interim agreement between the United States and Iran on stopping hostilities and opening the Strait of Hormuz, thus reducing the effect of the energy-driven inflation pressure. The leaders of the rally are financial and technology stocks, while the broader index of Topix followed the Nikkei to fresh record highs. It is interesting that this rally takes place despite the push of the Bank of Japan towards the highest interest rates since 1995. Now, the markets do not oppose monetary policy anymore; they completely ignore it. This divergence between the direction of the policy and direction of prices is an indication of confidence behind this move. The chart, on the other hand, is giving a completely different picture compared to the one seen three days ago. What the price action shows now is a market that has been rewarding patience but is slowly reaching the point where even the best trends cannot take anymore. The rising channel, which has been housing the entire advance, is respected, and the price action is now trading near the top of that channel rather than breaking out of it. The significance of this needs to be understood. The RSI has finally crossed over into overbought territory for the first time during this leg of the trade, well above the level of its signal line; meaning that buying pressure is still strong, but also that there have probably been more profits made from this move. The MACD line is still above the signal, so the bull setup that has existed during this run is technically still valid. The difference, however, is in the size of the gap. The distance between the MACD line and the signal is widening significantly as the price action is picking up speed.This does not signify reversal. It simply means that the Japan 225 is calling for a pause or a retest of the lower boundaries of the channel, if nothing else but a slower rise to make the long-term target achievable. Updated trade plan Direction: Long manage, do not add Status: Primary target (70,000) hit. Secondary target (72,000) hit. New target: 75,000 Trailing stop: 72000 Action: Trail the stop higher to protect realised gains; avoid adding fresh size while RSI remains overbought Technical scenarios from here Channel continuation: Most likely outcome if the Iran deal holds and the BOJ hike remains stable. The RSI cools to 60–65 without price drops, leading to a steadier move toward 75,000. Channel retest: A healthy, expected correction toward the 68,500–69,500 zone (midline/lower boundary) as the RSI unwinds. The 68,750 stop is set to hold through this pull-back. Channel breakdown: Lowest probability scenario. A daily close below the channel's lower boundary, accompanied by a bearish MACD cross, would signal exhaustion. Likely requires negative news on the Iran ceasefire or aggressive BOJ tightening.