中国消费支出进一步放缓,月度零售额疫情后首次下降

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KEITH BRADSHER2026年6月17日国家统计局周二发布数据显示,5月份社会消费品零售总额同比下降0.6%。 Qilai Shen for The New York TimesChina’s consumer spending slowdown deepened in May as retail sales unexpectedly fell from a year earlier, in the latest sign that the country’s housing market crash has left millions of families reluctant to spend.中国消费者支出放缓在5月份进一步加剧,零售额较上年同期意外下降,这是其房地产市场崩盘导致数百万家庭不愿消费的最新迹象。Retail sales dropped 0.6 percent in May from the same month a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. It was the first year-over-year decline since December 2022, when a wave of coronavirus infections swept the country and kept consumers at home after Beijing abruptly dismantled its stringent “Covid zero” restrictions.国家统计局周二公布的数据显示,5月份零售额较上年同期下降0.6%。这是自2022年12月以来的首次同比下降,当时北京突然取消严格的“清零”政策,新冠病毒感染潮随即席卷全国,消费者被困家中。Last month’s decline was a surprise because higher energy costs were expected to help lift retail sales. Gasoline sales, which are included in the retail sales figures, have risen as fuel costs increased following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the retail sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Yet retail sales still fell. After accounting for rising consumer prices, the decline in spending would have been steeper.5月数据的下降出人意料,因为原本预计更高的能源成本会提振零售额。零售额数据中包含的汽油销售额随燃料成本上涨而增加(霍尔木兹海峡关闭后油价走高),且零售数据未经通胀调整。然而零售额仍出现下降。若扣除消费者价格上涨因素,实际消费下滑幅度会更大。Weak demand at home has prompted companies across China to push harder into overseas markets. Exports hit a record in April and then climbed even higher in May to $376.8 billion, according to data released last week by China’s General Administration of Customs. Industrial production also strengthened in May, driven in part by especially strong output of electric cars and other high-tech products.国内需求疲弱促使中国企业加大力度开拓海外市场。据中国海关总署上周发布的数据,4月份出口创下纪录,5月份出口进一步攀升至3768亿美元。5月份工业生产也有所加强,部分得益于电动汽车和其他高科技产品产量强劲增长。“China’s supply side remains relatively strong: exports are growing rapidly, industrial production is holding up well, and high-tech sectors continue to expand,” said Zhu Tian, an economics professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai. “However, domestic demand remains weak.”“中国的供给侧依然相对强劲:出口快速增长,工业生产保持良好,高科技行业持续扩张,”上海中欧国际工商学院经济学教授朱天表示。“然而国内需求依然疲弱。”Investment in China fell in May even after excluding the deeply troubled real estate sector, as companies saw few opportunities for profitable expansion. Investment by private sector companies was particularly weak.即使剔除深受困扰的房地产行业,5月份中国整体投资仍出现下降,因为企业认为盈利扩张的机会有限。私营企业投资尤其疲弱。China’s trade surplus did not reach another monthly record in May because higher oil prices increased the cost of imports. China partly offset the impact by importing fewer barrels of oil than usual.5月份中国贸易顺差未能再创月度纪录,因为更高的油价推高了进口成本。中国通过减少进口原油数量部分抵消了这一影响。China’s increasingly bifurcated economy — marked by weak domestic demand and growing reliance on consumers in other countries — is expected to be a topic of discussion at the Group of 7 summit underway in southeastern France. The European Union has been weighing possible measures to limit imports of subsidized Chinese goods, while many Western economists argue that China’s currency, the renminbi, remains significantly undervalued.中国日益分化的经济——国内需求疲弱,同时越来越依赖其他国家的消费者——预计将成为正在法国东南部举行的七国集团峰会讨论的话题之一。欧盟一直在考虑采取措施限制进口中国补贴商品,而许多西方经济学家认为,中国的人民币仍被显著低估。“The G7 should come together to forge greater unity and a strategy to cope with what some are now calling China Shock 2.0, including pressing for significant renminbi appreciation,” said Mark Sobel, vice chairman and chief economist of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a research group specializing in central banking and currency policy.“七国集团应团结一致,制定应对如今一些人所说的‘中国冲击2.0’的策略,包括敦促人民币大幅升值,”官方货币与金融机构论坛(OMFIF)副董事长兼首席经济学家马克·索贝尔表示。该论坛是一家专注于央行和货币政策的研究机构。Car sales plunged in China last month, mainly due to a sharp drop in gasoline-powered car sales amid higher fuel prices. Overall vehicle sales dropped 22 percent in May from a year earlier and were a major drag on retail spending.上个月中国汽车销量大幅下滑,主要原因是汽油车销量因燃料价格上涨而锐减。5月份整体汽车销量同比下降22%,严重拖累了零售支出。The slide in car sales would have been far larger without continued strength in electric vehicles and plug-in gasoline-electric hybrids, which accounted for five of every eight cars sold in China last month.若非电动汽车和插电式汽油-电动混合动力车继续保持强劲表现,汽车销量的下滑幅度会大得多。上个月中国每售出8辆汽车中,就有5辆是新能源汽车。Few auto industry executives expect a quick turnaround. Summer is typically a slow season for car sales, which often do not recover until the national holidays in late September and early October.汽车行业高管中很少有人预计会快速反弹。夏季通常是汽车销售的淡季,往往要到9月底和10月初的国庆假期前后才会回暖。“Weak consumer confidence, combined with the prolonged downturn in the property sector, is likely to keep domestic demand under pressure,” said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, in a written reply to questions.全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树在书面回复中表示:“消费者信心疲弱,加上房地产行业持续低迷,国内需求可能将继续承压。”Ruoxin Zhang对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。