Market Profile June 16th Recap and Plan for June 17th, 2026E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (Sep 2026)CME_MINI:NQU2026JP_MarketProfileNavigating the Auction: Key Structures and Tomorrow's Trade Plan ES1! NQ1! Using TradingView's Market Profile, let’s review today's price action and look at what is ahead for tomorrow. Market Recap: June 16, 2026 Intraday Development & Profile Structure Both ES and NQ opened the session with overnight inventory net short. While NQ managed to print a new all-time high (ATH) during the Globex session, ES kept its overnight range exceptionally tight. At the regular trading hours (RTH) open, ES immediately took out its overnight high, whereas NQ failed to do so. Beginning in B-period, a definitive rotational shift took over as both products began to one-time frame down for the majority of the day. ES finally paused its downward trajectory in F-period to establish its Afternoon Rally High, while NQ found temporary relief in I-period to set its respective rally high. Late in the session, M-period pushed to new lows on the day. In NQ, this late liquidation manifested as a definitive price probe to the downside, which carries over as a key structural reference for tomorrow. By the bell, both indices left behind double distribution profiles: ES Structure: Holds one distinct set of single prints created by M-period during the final 30 minutes of the day. NQ Structure: Left two separate sets of single prints, confirming a highly emotional double distribution trend day to the downside. Market Generated Information (MGI) A critical structural nuance to carry forward is the complete lack of excess. NQ holds its current ATH strictly in Globex with no RTH excess, and ES similarly lacks any clear buying excess at its current ATH. Daily: In Balance (2-Day Balance) Weekly: Developing Balance Monthly: One-Time Framing UP The bears completely dominated today's structural landscape. NQ Final MGI Score: 7-0 Bears ES Final MGI Score: 7-1 Bears Plan for Tomorrow: June 17, 2026 S&P 500 Futures (ES) Tactical Outlook The ES daily balance is cleanly defined by Monday’s high (Balance High) and today’s low (Balance Low). The Bull Case: To reclaim yesterday's lost territory, bulls must immediately target today's Value Area High (VAH). Getting back above VAH effectively invalidates today's Afternoon Rally High and allows acceptance back into the upper distribution. However, simply taking out today's high achieves little structurally; the bulls must clearing the daily Balance High (ATH) to put the daily timeframe back into an upward trend. Standard balance rules apply—watch for sharp rejection at the balance extremes. The Bear Case: Bears want to build on today's late liquidation. Gaining acceptance within the lower distribution or below today's Value Area Low (VAL) will grant sellers the structural leverage needed to break the daily Balance Low (today's low). A clean break below today's low exposes a pocket of visual targets, including the 06/05 overnight 19-wide POC, the weekly gap fill, and the rollover gap fill. Note on Open: If ES opens inside today's value area, expect a choppy, highly rotational, and indecisive session. Patience will be required as more intraday MGI develops. Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) Tactical Outlook NQ presents a slightly more defensive structural alignment for the bulls because today's Afternoon Rally High sits lower in the profile, and the VAH rests precisely at the upper edge of the lower distribution. This gives the bears a distinct structural advantage. The Bear Case: If the open occurs below VAL, or if price quickly finds acceptance there, today's low is close enough to serve as an immediate magnet. Breaking today's low officially shifts the daily timeframe to down. Sellers also have a distinct price probe from today to defend; as long as price remains below the probe, bears remain firmly in control. Even an open inside value allows bears to lean heavily on the upper edge of the lower distribution as a logical line of defense. The Bull Case: Buyers face a steeper uphill battle. They must reclaim value by trading firmly back above VAH. If successful, their subsequent structural targets migrate to Monday's high and ultimately the Globex ATH. Clearing Monday's high (the Balance High) transitions the daily timeframe back to up. Key Levels to Watch ES Key Levels ATH / DAY BALANCE HIGH: 7648.75 VAH: 7622.75 Afternoon Rally High: 7622.25 Lower End of the Upper Distribution / VAL: 7598.75 Upper End of the Lower Distribution: 7598.75 LOD / DAY BALANCE LOW: 7583.00 06/05 ON 19-Wide POC: 7560.00 Week Gap Fill: 7491.00 Rollover Gap Fill: 7461.75 NQ Key Levels GLOBEX ATH: 30975.50 ATH / DAY BALANCE HIGH: 30915.00 Lower End of the Upper Distribution: 30750.75 Upper End of the Lower Distribution: 30665.25 VAH: 30665.00 Afternoon Rally High: 30521.00 VAL: 30375.50 Price Probe: 30336.75 LOD / DAY BALANCE LOW: 30302.25 06/05 ON 19-Wide POC: 30194.25 Week Gap Fill: 29848.25 Rollover Gap Fill: 29760.00 Closing Thoughts Today's aggressive one-time framing down and subsequent late-day liquidation show that the intermediate-term auction is actively looking for lower boundaries to find responsive buyers. Tomorrow's open relative to today's distributions will dictate whether the sellers maintain their immediate structural velocity or if we find ourselves balancing within today's range. ... so let the Market Profile and the MGI guide your setups. Don't start with a bias; let the data guide you.