Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTBeth McKenna, The Motley FoolSun, June 21, 2026 at 5:20 PM GMT+2 6 min readNvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock has richly rewarded investors. Shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip and technology infrastructure leader have returned 18,300% over the last decade, transforming a modest $1,000 investment into a whopping $184,000. The S&P 500 index returned 328% over this period.Over the last year, Nvidia stock has returned 45% through June 18, which is lower than most of its recent annual gains but still a strong gain. (The U.S. stock market was closed on Friday, June 19, for the Juneteenth holiday.)Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Annual PeriodNvidia Stock Price ChangeS&P 500 Index Change1-year period through June 18, 202645%26.9%1-year period through June 18, 20257.3%10.5%1-year period through June 18, 2024218%*26.3%1-year period through June 18, 2023364%*48.4%1-year period through June 18, 202272.6%21.6%Data source: YCharts. *These huge gains followed the explosion of generative AI onto the tech scene after OpenAI's launch of the ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022.Of course, these past gains are great for investors who own the stock. But what all investors -- existing and potential -- in Nvidia stock really want to know is what the stock's likely returns are in the future?Let's examine where Nvidia stock could be in one year, or about June 18, 2027.Image source: Getty Images.Economic and stock market assumptionsFor this analysis, I am assuming the U.S. economy continues to grow, at least a little, and that the stock market remains at least slightly bullish. In a recession and bear market, even the stocks of wonderful, fast-growing companies, like Nvidia, usually decline. (And, by the way, that scenario should be considered a great buying opportunity.)Relevant data pointsWall Street analysts expect Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) to increase 87.2% this fiscal year (fiscal 2027, ends in late January 2027), increase 39.8% next fiscal year (fiscal 2028, ends in late January 2028), and to average an annual increase of 45.5% over the next five fiscal years.Nvidia stock is currently trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.3 and a forward P/E of 23.3. Note that a forward P/E is based on Wall Street's earnings estimates for the next year.Nvidia stock is a downright value, making now a great time to buy. Investors would be hard-pressed to find a stock of a well-established company that's expected to grow 5-year earnings at an average annual rate of more than 45% with a forward P/E of just 23.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info