Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTVandita JadejaSun, June 21, 2026 at 6:00 PM GMT+2 4 min readQuick ReadJOBY trades at $10, down 24% year to date, despite 2026 revenue guidance of $105 million signaling a real operating business emerging.Wall Street's $11 consensus hasn't repriced for FAA Type Certification, where the bull case projects $26 over five years.Doubling to $20 by 2028 requires FAA certification by 2026, Dubai revenue in 2027, and Dayton producing 4 aircraft monthly.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Joby Aviation didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) is graduating from a flight-test story to a revenue story. The Blade acquisition pushed Q4 2025 revenue to $30.84 million, management is guiding $105 million to $115 million for full-year 2026, and a JFK-to-Manhattan eVTOL flight put the brand in front of every commuter in the country.Joby AviationYet shares sit at $10, down 24.24% year to date. Can JOBY trade at $20 by 2028?What's Holding Joby BackShares are stuck because of what investors are paying for unprofitable growth. Joby trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 122x with a beta of 2.67, punished whenever rate expectations shift. Shares are flat over the last month at 0%, with a recent 20% drop in June tied to a strong jobs report and renewed Fed tightening concerns.Insider selling has weighed on sentiment. Director Paul Sciarra sold 416,666 shares at $12.02, and CFO Rodrigo Brumana followed with a $897,000 sale via a 10b5-1 plan. Both were pre-scheduled, but the optics hurt a stock already 47% below its 52-week high.Wall Street Sees 11% Upside. Our Model Says 16%.Consensus target is $11.12, with 1 strong buy, 2 buys, 5 holds, 2 sells, and 1 strong sell. Our base-case model lands at $11.62 for a 16.2% upside, with a moderate 0.5 confidence score mirroring the analyst split of 27% bullish, 27% bearish, 45% neutral.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Joby Aviation didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.Consensus is too anchored on Joby being pre-revenue. The bull case points to $15.05 within twelve months and $25.75 over five years. Wall Street has not repriced for FAA certification, and that is the asymmetry worth watching.The Path to $20 Per ShareReaching $20 from $10 requires a gain of 100%. With forward EPS of -$1.20, a price of $20 implies a forward P/E of -17x. The negative figure shows why our model excludes EPS and leans on analyst target weighting and the 247Factor of 1.045. For JOBY, price-to-sales is where the bull case has room.If Joby hits a credible 2028 revenue ramp toward the $458 million projection being modeled post-FAA approval, the current 122x sales multiple compresses sharply at $20.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info