Gold May Plunge Toward the 4000 Range Again!GoldOANDA:XAUUSDmr53eem Fundamentals: Bearish factors dominate the medium-to-long term; rebounds are merely technical corrections. US economic data continues to show resilience, with employment and consumption figures displaying no clear signs of recession, causing the market to repeatedly push back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Real yields on US Treasuries remain high, weakening the appeal of gold—a non-yielding safe-haven asset. Medium-to-long-term capital continues to flow out of gold ETFs, and institutional investors are steadily reducing long positions, cementing a broad downward trend for gold prices; any rebound struggles to reverse this bearish pattern. Meanwhile, monetary policies in major global economies lean toward easing; expectations for rate cuts in Europe and Japan are rising, and the interest rate differential between the US and Europe continues to widen, providing the US Dollar Index with momentum for further gains. As gold is priced in dollars, a strengthening greenback suppresses upside potential, capping rebound heights and making the price vulnerable to concentrated selling pressure after any spike. The market is currently in the off-season for physical gold consumption, resulting in weak support from physical buying and a lack of capital to absorb the decline. Furthermore, geopolitical risk sentiment is cooling, with capital shifting toward risk assets like equities; the safe-haven premium on gold is fading, causing it to lose its medium-to-long-term upward momentum. News/Events: Key bearish catalysts next week will limit the extent of any rebound. Several Federal Reserve officials with voting rights are scheduled to speak next week. Given the recent resurgence in inflation data, these officials are likely to maintain a hawkish stance—reiterating the need to keep interest rates high for longer—thereby further dampening market expectations for rate cuts. This favors the US dollar and weighs on gold, meaning any rebound could easily be reversed by these comments. Additionally, US manufacturing and services PMIs, along with employment data, will be released next week; markets expect these figures to remain resilient. Positive data would reinforce the logic that the Fed will not cut rates, likely driving gold prices down after any initial spike. With no news of a new escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, there are no bullish factors to sustain safe-haven buying; gold's rebounds rely solely on short-term corrections following oversold conditions. Lacking sustained buying support, the rebound potential is limited, and prices are likely to turn downward upon hitting key resistance levels. There is a high probability that the 4,000 mark will be tested again next week; specific strategies will be provided in real-time based on the market opening.