JP225: Probing Short SetupJapan 225 IndexICMARKETS:JP225LIVERMORE333■ Market Context (4H Master View) Trend: SMA (7/28) orientation remains bullish. Momentum: Significant ~16% rally since the June 11th low. The market is currently in an overextended/overbought state. External Factor: Heightened risk of FX intervention by Japanese authorities. In my view, the risk-reward (RR) for new Long positions is currently unattractive. ■ Tactical Setup (1H View) While the 4H master trend has not flipped, I am staying sidelined on Longs due to the "intervention filter" in my trading rules. I am now monitoring for a structural shift on the 1H timeframe to signal a potential correction. ■ Trading Plan A break below the June 19th low (the most recent significant higher low) will confirm a structural breakdown of the 1H uptrend. Entry: Probing Short on a break below the June 19th low (Sell Stop). Stop Loss (SL): Above the June 19th high (72,191). Strategy: This is a "Probing" position (approx. 20-25% of standard size) because we are trading against the 4H SMA trend. Objective: To capture the initial move toward a 4H trend correction. I will consider adding to the position (pyramiding) once the 4H chart prints a clear Sell signal. "Analyze the setup simply, execute the plan simply." #JP225 #NI225 #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #Nikkei225 💡 英語表現のポイント解説