Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The euro is facing a mixed market backdrop today. Inflation in the euro area has accelerated, but this does not make the single currency clearly stronger. The ECB rate increase has already been partly priced in, while fresh wage signals suggest that second-round price effects remain contained. As a result, EUR/USD is still highly dependent on external demand for the US dollar. After the Federal Reserve meeting, the US dollar received support as the regulator kept rates unchanged but signalled its readiness to respond to more persistent inflation. For EUR/USD, the issue is not only the interest rate gap but also the quality of the economic backdrop. The euro area is facing pressure from energy costs and weak growth, while the US economy still looks more resilient. This difference limits demand for the euro. If the market continues to price in a higher probability of further Federal Reserve tightening, the dollar’s advantage may remain in place. For the euro, the combination of elevated inflation, a cautious ECB stance, and risks to business activity remains a restraining factor. Under the baseline scenario, pressure on EUR/USD looks more sustainable, and the sell idea is consistent with the current fundamental backdrop. Trading idea: SELL 1.15200, SL 1.1550, TP 1.14300