ADAM RASGON, RONEN BERGMAN, FARNAZ FASSIHI, DAVID E. SANGER, ELIAN PELTIER, ANTON TROIANOVSKI2026年6月18日Just after midnight in Tehran earlier this week, a motorcade speeding to the airport came to a sudden stop. Qatari officials emerged from their cars and huddled on the side of the road. Yet another last-minute crisis had come up in the marathon Iran talks, and the Qataris had clear instructions from their leadership not to leave without an announced deal.本周早些时候，德黑兰时间午夜刚过，一支疾驰前往机场的车队突然停了下来。卡塔尔官员从车里出来，聚拢在路边商讨。马拉松式的伊朗谈判又在最后一刻出了状况，而卡塔尔人接到的国内领导层的指示很明确：不宣布达成协议，就不能离开。In Washington, President Trump was getting ready for a birthday dinner. International mediators believed the birthday — and the U.F.C. cage match scheduled for Sunday night — could put Mr. Trump in the mood to sign the agreement on that day.在华盛顿，特朗普总统正准备参加一场生日晚宴。国际调解方相信，生日以及周日晚间的终极格斗冠军赛可能会让特朗普有心情在当天签署协议。In Israel, officials were already grappling with a humiliating setback, in what appeared to be their closest ally’s imminent separate agreement with Israel’s archenemy. The deal appeared on track despite Israel’s decision to attack a Beirut suburb that day without consulting with the United States.在以色列，官员们正在艰难消化一个丢脸的挫折：他们最亲密的盟友似乎即将与以色列的头号敌人单独达成协议。尽管以色列当天未与美国磋商就轰炸了贝鲁特一处郊区，该协议似乎仍在按计划推进。But on the Tehran roadside, the Qataris were dealing with disagreements about the phrasing of the announcement. Finally, after more calls, the Qataris got back in their cars and headed for the airport. Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, announced the deal at 12:45 a.m. Monday in Tehran and Mr. Trump confirmed it minutes later, revealing a good-will gesture to the Iranians: the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports immediately.但在德黑兰的路边，卡塔尔人正忙于应付围绕协议声明措辞产生的分歧。经过更多通话协调后，他们终于回到车上，继续赶往机场。巴基斯坦总理谢里夫于德黑兰时间周一凌晨12点45分宣布达成协议，特朗普几分钟后予以确认，并向伊朗作出了一个善意姿态：美国将立即解除对伊朗港口的海上封锁。Last weekend, four months of war and 47 years of confrontation between the United States and Iran came to a head in an extraordinary diplomatic rush that repeatedly threatened to spiral into more bloodshed. Negotiators were wrangling over issues with wide significance for the world economy, Mideast geopolitics and U.S. domestic politics.上周末，持续四个月的战争以及美伊长达47年的对抗在一场非同寻常的外交冲刺中达到紧要关头，期间多次险些演变为更多流血冲突。谈判代表围绕一系列具有重大影响的问题展开拉锯，这些问题事关全球经济、中东地缘政治以及美国国内政治。Mr. Trump sought a deal he could sell as making good on his promise to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, even though the establishment of specific protections was being kicked to a later negotiation. Iran was determined to avoid giving up what it says is its right to enrich uranium, while maximizing what it could extract in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.特朗普希望达成一项能够让他宣称自己兑现了“阻止伊朗拥有核武器”承诺的协议，尽管具体的保障机制留待后续谈判解决。伊朗则坚决捍卫其所称的铀浓缩权利，同时力求在重开霍尔木兹海峡的交换中争取最大利益。This account of the final hours of the negotiations for a deal to declare a cease-fire and begin nuclear talks is based on interviews with officials in Washington, Europe and across the Middle East, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the secret talks.基于对华盛顿、欧洲及中东各地官员的采访，本文还原了这份宣布停火并启动核谈判的协议在达成前最后数小时各方的博弈。由于涉及秘密谈判，受访者大多要求匿名。Already, Mr. Trump is facing criticism even from some supporters that the “memorandum of understanding” between the two sides gives away too much to Iran. The agreement, the text of which was released by the White House on Wednesday, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and outlines a $300 billion plan for Iran’s reconstruction and development. But it also pushes talks about Iran’s nuclear program into future negotiations, essentially punting on the hardest issue.特朗普眼下已面临批评，甚至就连一些支持者也认为，这份“谅解备忘录”对伊朗让步过多。周三白宫公布的协议文本承诺重开霍尔木兹海峡，并勾勒出一项规模达3000亿美元的伊朗重建与发展计划。但与此同时，它把有关伊朗核计划的讨论推迟到未来谈判中，实际上回避了最棘手的问题。Throughout the weekend, Iran showed a willingness to keep pushing for more U.S. concessions despite the constant threat of more airstrikes, which Mr. Trump renewed on Wednesday. Israeli officials fretted they were failing to convince the United States that the deal could create grave risks to Israel’s security and leave the nuclear issue unaddressed. And Qatari officials led a back-channel mediating effort, telling the Iranians they needed to give their final sign-off to the deal before the start of the U.F.C. match on the White House lawn.整个周末，伊朗表现出愿意继续推动美国做出更多让步的迹象，尽管后者不断以发动更多空袭相威胁——特朗普周三又重申了这一威胁。以色列官员则在担心，他们未能说服美国正视这项协议可能对以色列安全构成的严重风险，而且它没有解决核问题。卡塔尔官员主导了幕后调解工作，他们告诉伊朗方面，必须在白宫南草坪举行的终极格斗冠军赛开始之前对协议作出最终确认。Mr. Trump appeared eager to get the deal done, a circumstance not lost on another key mediator, Pakistan. Two experts familiar with Pakistan’s mediation said Syed Asim Munir, the country’s powerful army chief, wanted the deal to be signed on Mr. Trump’s birthday.特朗普似乎急于完成协议，这一点没有逃过另一位关键调解者巴基斯坦的注意。两位熟悉巴基斯坦调停工作的专家表示，该国位高权重的陆军参谋长穆尼尔希望协议能够在特朗普生日当天签署。“The birthday was a way to woo him,” Qamar Cheema, the head of an Islamabad-based research institute privy to Pakistan’s role in the mediation, said about Mr. Trump.“生日是一个讨好他的机会。”对巴基斯坦调解工作颇为了解的伊斯兰堡一家研究机构的负责人卡马尔·齐马谈及特朗普时说道。Another person familiar with the matter insisted that Mr. Trump’s birthday had nothing to do with the timing.不过，另一位知情人士坚称，特朗普的生日与协议的时间安排没有联系。4月，副总统万斯与巴基斯坦军方领导人穆尼尔在伊斯兰堡举行会面。But two Iranian officials said Tehran waited until the clock passed midnight local time to finalize the agreement, because it did not want the momentous occasion to coincide with Mr. Trump’s birthday. The seven-and-a-half-hour time difference allowed both Tehran and Washington to claim their preferred version of when the deal was finalized. Mr. Trump had said it would be on Sunday, and Iran had said it would be on a later day.但两名伊朗官员透露，德黑兰有意等到当地时间午夜过后才最终确认协议，因为伊朗不希望这样一个重大时刻与特朗普的生日重叠。七个半小时的时差让德黑兰和华盛顿都可以宣称协议是在各自偏好的日期敲定的——特朗普说是周日，伊朗则称是在之后的一天。Cycles of Escalation升级循环Since announcing a cease-fire with Iran in April, Mr. Trump had repeatedly cycled between claiming that a peace deal was near, threatening to order a devastating bombardment and then backing away from the threats.自4月宣布与伊朗停火以来，特朗普不断在声称和平协议即将达成、威胁发动毁灭性轰炸以及随后收回威胁之间反复摇摆。Last week appeared to be another such episode, with a cycle of escalation that began with the downing of an American helicopter and ending last Thursday with Mr. Trump calling off a planned attack on Iran. A drawn-out period of stalled talks and simmering violence seemed to be a likely scenario.上周似乎又是这样一个循环。紧张局势升级始于一架美国直升机被击落，直至上周四特朗普宣布取消对伊朗的打击计划而暂告一段落。谈判停滞、暴力冲突持续发酵的局面似乎可能长期持续下去。U.S. intelligence officials were deeply skeptical of Iran’s willingness to make meaningful concessions. Intelligence collection was showing that Iranian officials were taking a different stance among themselves than what they were expressing to the lead U.S. negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to people familiar with the assessments.美国情报官员对伊朗是否愿意作出实质性让步深表怀疑。根据了解相关评估的人士透露，情报显示，伊朗官员私下讨论时所持有的立场与他们向美国首席谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳表达的立场并不一致。The C.I.A. even assessed last week — incorrectly, it turned out — that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, would not agree to the memorandum of understanding that Iran and the United States were negotiating, according to a person familiar with the matter.据一名知情人士透露，中央情报局甚至在上周还认为，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊不会同意美伊两国正在谈判的这份谅解备忘录，事后证明这一判断有误。But Mr. Trump remained bullish on the possibility of a deal. Speaking to The New York Times on Sunday, Mr. Trump said that the airstrikes he had launched on Iran in recent weeks were “very brutal,” and that the attack he called off would have been even more intense.但特朗普始终对达成协议持乐观态度。周日接受《纽约时报》采访时，他表示，自己最近几周对伊朗发动的空袭“极其猛烈”，而他后来取消的那次打击行动本来还会更加激烈。“We explained to them that they can’t do anything about it,” Mr. Trump said. “They said, ‘Please don’t do it; we will make a deal.’ And we made a deal right after that.”“我们向他们解释过，他们对此是无能为力的，”特朗普说道，“他们说：‘请不要这么做，我们会达成协议。’于是紧接着我们就达成了协议。”On Saturday, Pakistan’s prime minister said Iran and the United States were “closer to a peace deal than ever before” and promised an agreement within 24 hours.周六，巴基斯坦总理表示伊朗和美国“比以往任何时候都更接近和平协议”，并许诺，协议将在24小时内达成。The same day, Mr. Khamenei told Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the lead negotiator and speaker of Iran’s parliament, that he approved of the final text of the agreement, according to four Iranian officials.同一天，哈梅内伊告知首席谈判代表、伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫将军，他批准了协议的最终文本。He directed Mr. Ghalibaf to put the document to a vote at the 13-member Supreme National Security Council and, if a three-fourths majority was reached, to proceed with signing, according to the four Iranian officials.据四名伊朗官员透露，他指示卡利巴夫将文件提交给由13人组成的最高国家安全委员会投票，若获得四分之三多数支持，就可以推进签署程序。Gathering in a secret location, the council approved the deal, though at least two hard-line members voted against it.委员会在一个秘密地点召开会议并通过了该协议，但至少有两名强硬派成员投了反对票。“There were, of course, some minor differences of opinion on a limited number of issues,” Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said in televised remarks.“当然，在少数问题上存在一些小的分歧。”伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬在电视讲话中表示。On Sunday morning, Qatar’s main negotiators, Ali al-Thawadi and Hamad al-Kubaisi, landed in Tehran to hammer out the details. Qatar’s negotiating team had been shuttling for weeks between the United States and Iran, at one point flying to Tehran via Turkey to keep the trip under wraps. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, had hosted Iranian officials for a 12-hour session in Doha on May 25.周日早上，卡塔尔的主要谈判代表阿勒萨尼和阿勒库拜西飞抵德黑兰，就细节问题展开最后磋商。卡塔尔谈判团队数周来一直在美伊之间穿梭斡旋，一度为掩人耳目绕道土耳其飞赴德黑兰。卡塔尔首相穆罕默德曾于5月25日在多哈接待伊朗官员，双方进行了长达12小时的会谈。During the war, the United States and Iran had asked the Qataris to mediate between them, but they refused as long as they were coming under Iranian missile and drone attacks. It was only in mid-May, when a cease-fire was in place but the talks were at a nadir, that Qatar took on a prominent mediating role.战争期间，美伊双方均曾邀请卡塔尔从中斡旋，但由于卡塔尔本身正遭受伊朗导弹和无人机袭击，因此拒绝介入。直至5月中旬，停火已成定局但谈判陷入低谷之际，卡塔尔才正式扮演起重要的调解角色。Then, on Sunday, Israel struck a Beirut suburb, killing three people, setting off another scramble. There was no coordination with the United States before the strike, only a notification to the U.S. military a few minutes before it began, according to an Israeli defense officials and a U.S. military official.就在周日，以色列空袭了贝鲁特一处郊区，造成三人死亡，再度引发各方紧急应对。据一名以色列国防官员和一名美国军方官员透露，以色列此次行动事前未与美国协调，仅提前几分钟通知了美军。周日，贝鲁特郊区遭以色列空袭后的损毁情况。It was an aggressive response to attacks by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed force in Lebanon, that wounded two Israeli soldiers.这是针对伊朗支持的武装力量黎巴嫩真主党袭击行动的强硬回应，此前真主党的袭击导致两名以色列士兵受伤。Iran had defined targeting the Beirut suburb as a red line and said any agreement between Tehran and Washington needed to include an end to the conflict in Lebanon. But Israel, which had been left out of the U.S.-Iran talks despite having waged war against Iran alongside the United States, had repeatedly signaled that it did not feel bound by such agreements.伊朗早已将针对贝鲁特郊区的袭击划为红线，并表示德黑兰与华盛顿之间的任何协议都必须包含结束黎巴嫩冲突的内容。然而，被排除在美伊谈判之外的以色列——尽管它与美国一道对伊朗发动战争——却一再表明，它并不认为自己必须受到这类协议约束。A Deal on Thin Ice协议岌岌可危Military advisers to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told him that the move would almost certainly lead to the launch of Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel. They warned the world could interpret Israel’s strike as an attempt to derail a deal on the verge of being signed.以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的军事顾问告诉他，此举几乎必然导致伊朗向以色列发射弹道导弹。他们警告，国际社会可能会将此次袭击视为以色列试图破坏一项即将签署的协议。But Mr. Netanyahu was facing sharp criticism at home for not taking a more aggressive approach in Lebanon and for failing to thwart a deal that the Israeli leadership sees as creating grave risks to Israel’s security.但内塔尼亚胡在国内面临严厉批评，指责他在黎巴嫩问题上不够强硬，也未能阻止一项以色列领导层认为会给国家安全带来严重风险的协议。Israel soon learned that Iran was, in fact, preparing to respond with missiles. In Tehran, Israel’s attack seemed to validate the skepticism voiced by many officials about America’s good faith in the negotiations. Instead, some saw the United States and Israel playing a good-cop, bad-cop game against Iran that they were coordinating behind the scenes, four Iranian officials said.以色列随即获悉，伊朗确实正在准备用导弹予以回击。在德黑兰，以色列的袭击似乎印证了许多伊朗官员对美国谈判诚意的怀疑。四名伊朗官员表示，部分人认为美以在背地里配合对伊朗上演“一个唱红脸、一个唱白脸”的戏码。Ballistic missiles were placed in launchers along Iran’s western borders and the order was to fire them toward Israel at around 1 a.m., said two Iranian officials, one with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.两名伊朗官员——其中一人来自伊斯兰革命卫队——表示，弹道导弹已经在伊朗西部边境的发射装置上就位，并接到命令，计划于凌晨1点左右向以色列发射。Furious Iranian officials told the Qataris that they were planning an attack on Israel and would suspend signing the agreement. The Qataris pushed back in talks with their main Iranian interlocutors, Mr. Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister.愤怒的伊朗官员告诉卡塔尔方面，他们准备攻击以色列，并暂停签署协议。卡塔尔则与伊朗主要谈判代表卡利巴夫和外长阿拉格齐展开沟通，试图加以劝阻。Striking Israel would only play into the hands of the deal’s opponents, the Qataris told the Iranians. Repeatedly, the Qataris made calls to the United States, conveying messages from the Iranians to Mr. Witkoff, Mr. Kushner and Vice President JD Vance.卡塔尔方面告诉伊朗人，打击以色列只会便宜了协议的反对者。卡塔尔人反复致电美国方面，向维特科夫、库什纳和副总统万斯传达伊朗的信息。Internally, there were divisions among Iran’s leadership. Mr. Pezeshkian, Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Ghalibaf argued that Mr. Netanyahu was setting a trap for Iran and the attack on Beirut was bait for Iran to respond. Tit-for-tat fighting would ensue, they warned, and the deal would fall apart.伊朗领导层内部也出现了分歧。佩泽希齐扬、阿拉格奇和卡利巴夫认为，内塔尼亚胡是在给伊朗下套，袭击贝鲁特不过是诱使伊朗上钩的诱饵。他们警告说，一旦双方陷入针锋相对的报复行动，协议就会彻底破裂。The deal again seemed to be on thin ice. Iran sought to insert last-minute language into the text. The Qataris insisted the wording could not be changed in the 11th hour. As the haggling dragged on, the Qataris warned the Iranians they risked Mr. Trump’s patience, especially as the start of the U.F.C. match on the White House lawn approached.协议再次看似岌岌可危。伊朗试图在最后一刻给文本中加入新的表述。卡塔尔坚持在最后关头不能更改措辞。随着讨价还价持续进行，卡塔尔警告伊朗，他们正在考验特朗普的耐心，尤其是白宫南草坪上的终极格斗冠军赛即将开始。But Mr. Trump also showed he was eager to seal the deal. He posted on Truth Social that the Israeli attack on Beirut “should not have happened.” When he confirmed the deal in another post hours later, Mr. Trump also declared that he would order “the immediate removal” of the U.S. blockade on Iran.但特朗普也表现出敲定协议的强烈意愿。他在Truth Social上发贴，称以色列对贝鲁特的袭击“本不该发生”。几个小时后，他在确认达成协议的另一条帖子中还宣布，将下令“立即解除”美国对伊朗实施的封锁。The text of the agreement said the United States would end its blockade within 30 days. Administration officials insisted that promising an immediate end to it was not an added inducement to get Iran on board, but rather, one said, “an act of graciousness.”协议文本称美国将在30天内结束封锁。政府官员坚称，承诺立即解除封锁并不是为了诱使伊朗接受协议而额外增加的让步，一位官员表示，这只是“一种善意之举”。Afterward, Mr. Trump placed a call to a New York Times reporter to explain the deal, even as, he said, his “wonderful family” was waiting for his birthday dinner to begin.协议敲定后，特朗普拨通了《纽约时报》记者的电话，亲自解释协议内容——尽管他说，他“美好的家人们”正在等他开始生日晚宴。Julian E. Barnes和Eric Schmitt自华盛顿对本文有研究贡献。Adam Rasgon是时报驻耶路撒冷记者，报道以色列和巴勒斯坦事务。Ronen Bergman是《纽约时报杂志》记者，常驻特拉维夫。Farnaz Fassihi是时报联合国分社社长，领导对该组织的报道。她还报道伊朗问题，从事中东冲突报道长达15年。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。Elian Peltier是时报巴基斯坦和阿富汗分社社长，常驻伊斯兰堡。Anton Troianovski自华盛顿为《纽约时报》报道有关美国外交政策和国家安全的文章。他此前曾在莫斯科和柏林任驻外记者。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。