Breeding Digest: A Milestone to Justify Every Agenda

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All those so avid to see how Flightline will fare in his second career should surely be gratified if he can prove as effective as the last champion to enter stud with anything approaching his freakish reputation.Two new stakes winners last Saturday, one on either coast, took Justify past 50 from four crops. (His fifth, at this point, having barely entered the fray.) One, GIII Summertime Oaks winner Mizumi, became his 24th graded stakes scorer in the Northern Hemisphere; among which 10 have scored at the highest level, including in all three colts' Classics in Britain.That latter distinction–a quite astonishing one, from such limited opportunity over the water–has not necessarily served to his advantage in a notoriously parochial domestic market. Yet Justify's transatlantic impact surely extends the flexible dynamism that has branded his sire-line, at various points, as historic in its influence.His sire Scat Daddy, grandsire Johannesburg (especially as a runner) and, beyond them, Storm Cat and Northern Dancer all displayed a genetic vigor that transcended local conditions. And here, remember, we are talking about a dirt paragon whose brawny build proved equal to the grail of the American sport; an assignment routinely treated, by trainers today, as beyond the competence of the modern Thoroughbred. Justify has immediately vindicated the historic rationale for the Triple Crown format, as a tried-and-trusted measure of the kind of genes we should be looking to replicate. In the process, he has shown European breeders what they had almost uniformly been missing, over the preceding generation: namely, the dirt speed that supplies a gap in what they understand by “stamina.”It is this type of speed-the kind that can be carried–that has sustained those Classic winners through eight, 12 and even 14 furlongs. Yet the dismal reality is that the author of the latter success, Scandinavia in the G1 St Leger last September, will by many be perceived as actually damaging Justify's brand if he can win another venerable prize at Royal Ascot this week: the G1 Gold Cup, for which he is hot favorite, being run over a distance (two and a half miles) to bewilder American horsemen.But a relentless galloper like Scandinavia is simply deploying the same gusto as the ill-fated Ruling Court, who last year won the G1 2,000 Guineas over a mile; or Grand Job, who failed by just a nose to win a Grade I dirt sprint at Keeneland this spring; or Arabian Lion, the young Spendthrift sire who won the GI Woody Stephens Stakes.Arabian Lion is out of a Distorted Humor mare, and so too is Mizumi–who herself started out winning a dirt sprint before stepping up to an extended mile for her immediate graduation to graded company. It was over similar distances that her dam Sweet Opportunity (Distorted Humor) was repeatedly placed in minor black-type company before her acquisition, on retirement, by Baoma Corp. for $190,000 at the 2017 Keeneland January Sale. Justify | CoolmoreHer racetrack accomplishments were underpinned by the fact that she was out of an unraced sister to GII Lane's End Stakes winner Adriano (A.P. Indy). That pair also had a notable half-sister in graded stakes-placed Gold d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro), dam of GIII Swale Stakes winner Strike Power (Speightstown). These, in turn, were out of a daughter of Mr. Prospector and Bet Twice's GI Santa Anita Oaks-winning half-sister Golden Treat (Theatrical {Ire}). Duly favored by some good covers, Sweet Opportunity's four previous starters have all won–but Justify appears to have given her a superior talent.On the face of it, his other stakes winner on Saturday was of limited commercial service: Just a Touch made all in the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park over 12 furlongs of grass. But while this horse's first black-type success is deserved to the point of being overdue, it hardly upgrades his form in some of the most resonant dirt races around: he was beaten only by Sierra Leone himself in the GI Blue Grass Stakes, for instance, and last year made the podium (albeit in a small field) in the GI Met Mile. And if the switch to turf was prompted by a rather disappointing effort as favorite for the GI Santa Anita Handicap, back in March, then let's not forget how that race was won in dominant fashion by another son of Justify in British Isles.Just a Touch has now banked a few cents shy of $900,000, confirming him an alert buy by Fergus Galvin for $300,000 as a 2-year-old at OBS. He's out of GIII Comely Stakes winner Touching Beauty (Tapit), and by this stage his body of work is close to earning him a chance at stud. Who knows, for an enlightened program somewhere, his new metier may even increase his eligibility. High AltitudesFlightline may yet turn out to be the next Northern Dancer but for now, albeit with massive advantages in the caliber of his mares, he remains a blank slate in his new role. It is certainly an eloquent commentary on our times, then, that Justify's fifth crop of yearlings-while retailing at a perfectly respectable $336,372-were last year valued at not quite half of Flightline's debut crop, which averaged $737,274.That, of course, simply makes Flightline a dramatization of the familiar, automatic treatment of all new sires by the commercial market. However high he can build, the first brick in his wall will always remain Demian, the $1.7 million yearling who scored on debut in Japan at the weekend.While this fellow's cost was plainly supported by his physique, it also reflected his page–and the help Flightline will have received from his mares. In fact, the September Sale catalogue could barely accommodate half the story. His unraced dam Mira Alta (Curlin), a $200,000 Rock Ridge recruit in the same ring at the 2015 November Sale, had already delivered three graded stakes performers including GIII Peter Pan Stakes winner Promise Keeper (Constitution). And the rest of the page was consumed by other siblings out of Zenith (Roy), notably GI Breeders' Futurity winner Great Hunter (Aptitude); and the unraced Bernardini mare Aspen Light (Bernardin), as dam of multiple graded stakes winner Owendale (Into Mischief).Since then, Aspen Light has additionally become dam of a Grade I winner in Shred the Gnar (Into Mischief). Even as it was, however, the wider dynasty spreading beneath Zenith's dam remained known only to those for whom her name will instantly have dominated the three-generation fishtail at the top of the catalogue page. The Keswick Farm matriarch Sequins (Northern Fashion) entwines many an active pedigree, not least as granddam of champion Stellar Wind (Curlin)–and therefore filling the same slot for Demian as he does behind leading sophomore Plutarch (Into Mischief). Early Voting | Sarah AndrewSetting the Early PaceThese remain absurdly early days, of course, for all these young stallions. But if such are the games we must play, then can you imagine the hype if Flightline started in the same fashion as Early Voting?The son of Gun Runner (out of a half-sister, remember, to none other than Speightstown) has so far fielded four winners from seven starters, three flamboyant enough to be anointed TDN “Rising Stars.”The latest of these, Balloteer, saw off a well-fancied son of Flightline in :57 at Churchill last weekend, having first signposted his direction of travel when elevating a nice yearling return ($170,000 at Fasig last July) to $475,000 at OBS in March.Balloteer is yet another out of a Distorted Humor mare. Though she finished last on her solitary start, and was subsequently sold for $19,000, Just Joking has produced eight winners from nine starters: one graded stakes-placed, but generally modest enough from modest covers. She certainly offers embers to be stoked, however, as a granddaughter of champion sprinter Safely Kept (Horatius).Early Voting's debut crop graduated from a book of 191 mares; and yet last year he covered 64 at half his opening fee ($12,500 from $25,000). Same horse, same semen; and, essentially, no more or less proven, other than having averaged a rock-solid $129,485 with his first yearlings.As always, then, we will only discover which agents and managers truly believed in him (as opposed to believing just in the market for new sires) if they feature among those to double down at lower fees, precisely as their “judgement” is about to be vindicated in the starting gate. Still a long a way to go, plainly, but those who kept the faith can only feel encouraged.The post Breeding Digest: A Milestone to Justify Every Agenda appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.