袁莉2026年6月17日 Dongyan XuBeijing has long built walls between Chinese citizens and the outside world: The Great Firewall blocks out information, and passport controls and exit bans restrict movement. But money had been different.北京长期以来在中国公民与外部世界之间筑起高墙：“防火墙”阻断信息，护照管控和出境禁令限制人员流动。但资金流动曾经是个例外。In an unspoken bargain between the government and its people, political limits could be tolerated as long as families were largely free to accumulate, protect and quietly diversify their wealth.政府与民众之间曾经有着心照不宣的默契，只要普通家庭在很大程度上能够自由地积累和保护财富，并且悄悄实现财富的多元化配置，政治上的限制就是可以容忍的。That bargain is fraying.这种默契正在瓦解。Over the last couple of years, Chinese citizens have increasingly invested in overseas securities, and especially in the U.S. stock market. But in recent weeks, Beijing has moved to close informal channels between Chinese households and global capital markets. It gave several Hong Kong and Singaporean-based brokerages with significant mainland clientele two years to wind down those accounts. It expanded rules on overseas investment to explicitly cover individuals for the first time, threatening to confiscate vaguely defined “illegal gains.”过去几年里，中国公民越来越多地投资海外证券，尤其是美国股市。但在最近几周，北京采取行动，切断了中国家庭与全球资本市场之间的非正式渠道。当局要求几家拥有大量大陆客户的香港和新加坡券商在两年内逐步结清这些账户。政府还扩大了海外投资规定的适用范围，首次明确涵盖个人投资者，并威胁要没收定义模糊的“非法所得”。In Hong Kong, long a gateway to overseas investing for mainland residents, banks and brokerages have tightened requirements for opening an account. Some brokerages told their mainland clients that the clients could sell U.S. stocks but not buy them. The Chinese social media app known as RedNote announced that it had cracked down on posts teaching people how to open U.S. stock trading accounts.香港长期以来一直是大陆居民进行海外投资的门户，如今这里的银行和券商也收紧了开户要求。一些券商告诉他们的大陆客户，只能卖出美股，不能买入。中国社交媒体应用小红书宣布，已经严厉打击教人们如何开设美股交易账户的帖子。Beijing is pulling every available lever to mobilize the nation’s private wealth as a resource for its state-led drive toward technological self-reliance and national rejuvenation. In a major speech published in January, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, argued that financial latitude must be subordinated to national security, warning that China must guard against not only the risks of opening up but also risks that are “deliberately engineered” by geopolitical adversaries.北京正动用一切可能的杠杆，调动全国的私人财富作为资源，推动国家主导的科技自立和民族复兴进程。在今年1月发表的一篇重要讲话中，中国领导人习近平指出，金融自由度必须服从于国家安全，他警告说，中国不仅要防范对外开放的风险，还要防范地缘政治对手“蓄意制造”的风险。Geopolitical considerations are shrinking opportunity for Chinese investors in other ways. Amid the intense rivalry between the United States and China, SpaceX excluded Chinese investors from its history-breaking initial public offering last week. At the same time, Beijing is erecting its financial walls precisely when ordinary Chinese have the most reason to look outward for more lucrative places to put their savings.地缘政治考量还在以其他方式不断压缩中国投资者的机会。在中美竞争日益激烈的大背景下，SpaceX在上周创纪录的首次公开募股中将中国投资者排除在外。与此同时，就在中国普通民众最有理由将目光投向海外、为自己的储蓄寻找更丰厚回报之际，北京却在筑起金融高墙。In the United States, stocks and bonds are the default investments for long-term savings. But retail investors in China tend to shy away from the country’s stock exchanges, known as the A-shares market, viewing it less as a vehicle for building household wealth than as a speculative arena swayed by policy, rumor and sudden state intervention. The market has many nicknames, including “the meat grinder.”在美国，股票和债券是长期储蓄的默认投资方式。但中国的散户投资者往往对国内的证券交易所（即A股市场）敬而远之。在他们看来，A股与其说是积累家庭财富的工具，不如说是一个受政策、谣言和政府突然干预影响的投机角斗场。这个市场有许多绰号，诸如“绞肉机”。Instead, for two decades, middle-class families invested in real estate. The housing market was booming, and people bought apartments not just to live in but as retirement plans, college funds and assets for their children. Nearly one-third of urban households owned two apartments, and more than 10 percent owned three or more apartments, according to a 2020 survey by China’s central bank.取而代之的是，过去20年里，中产阶级家庭将资金投入房地产。随着房地产市场的繁荣，人们买房不仅是为了居住，更是为了养老、筹集子女大学学费，以及为子女积累资产。根据中国央行2020年的一项调查，近三分之一的城镇家庭拥有两套住房，超过10%的家庭拥有三套或以上住房。After the housing market collapsed in 2021, however, many people lost faith in the asset that had underpinned their sense of security. Already big savers because of the country’s spare social safety net, Chinese people retreated into defensive savings. By the end of 2025, China’s household bank deposits had reached the equivalent of $24.4 trillion, nearly tripling over a decade.然而，在2021年房地产市场崩盘后，许多人对这种曾经支撑家庭安全感的资产失去了信心。由于国内社会保障体系较为薄弱，中国人本来就热衷于储蓄，如今更是退缩到防御性储蓄之中。到2025年底，中国家庭的银行存款已达到150万亿元以上，几乎达到10年前的三倍。But that money is earning diminishing returns. Three-quarters of household savings are in fixed-term deposits. But those rates have fallen to around 1 percent, while high-yield savings accounts in the United States offer up to around 4 percent.但这笔资金的回报率却在不断下降。四分之三的家庭储蓄以定期存款的形式存在。但其存款的利率已经降至1%左右，而美国的高收益储蓄账户提供的利率最高可达4%左右。2024年的上海公寓楼群，此时距离中国房地产市场崩盘已过去三年。At the same time, the U.S. stock market kept going up. For financially sophisticated members of the Chinese middle class, overseas markets became a hedge against China’s economic slowdown, political uncertainty and weakening domestic returns.与此同时，美国股市持续上涨。对于具备金融知识的中国中产阶级而言，海外市场成为了对冲中国经济放缓、政治不确定性以及国内收益疲软的工具。The Institute of International Finance, a trade association based in Washington, estimated that resident capital outflows from China reached $809 billion in 2025, the highest level on record.总部位于华盛顿的行业协会国际金融协会估计，2025年中国居民资本外流达到8090亿美元，创下历史最高纪录。In 2025, Hong Kong overtook Switzerland as the world’s largest cross-border wealth management hub, partly driven by money coming from mainland China, according to Boston Consulting Group.据波士顿咨询公司的数据，2025年，香港超越瑞士成为全球最大的跨境财富管理中心，这部分得益于来自中国内地的资金流入。But Beijing increasingly sees this outflow of Chinese wealth as unpatriotic. Hu Xijin, a former editor in chief of the nationalist tabloid Global Times and one of China’s most prominent pro-government commentators, argued on the Weibo social media platform that the government’s latest moves served “the overall interests of Chinese society.”但北京日益将这种中国财富外流视为不爱国行为。民族主义小报《环球时报》前总编辑、中国最知名的亲政府评论员之一胡锡进在社交媒体平台微博上辩称，政府的最新举措符合“中国全社会的整体利益”。“If stock investors buy more A-shares and fewer U.S. stocks, or if some people refrain from hastily selling their homes in China to buy property in the West, the overall effect would be positive,” he wrote.“股民们多买A股，少买美股；一些人不要轻易把国内房子卖了，去西方购置房产。这样的效果总体上是积极的，”他写道。Keeping savings at home and interest rates low is vital to Beijing. The country’s hugely indebted local governments have been restructuring their debts, relying on cheap domestic capital to ease interest burdens that consume roughly a fifth of their revenue. The savings are also backing China’s enormous investment in infrastructure, robotics, semiconductors and other industries deemed key to self-reliance and national security.将储蓄留在国内并保持低利率对北京至关重要。中国负债累累的地方政府一直在重组债务，依赖廉价的国内资本来缓解消耗约占其收入五分之一的利息负担。这些储蓄还支撑着中国在基础设施、机器人、半导体以及其他被视为对自给自足和国家安全关键产业上的巨额投资。But that is not where sophisticated investors want to be. A technology worker who asked to be identified only by his last name, Xu, for fear of government retribution, has put as much money as China’s law allows into an American brokerage account since 2023.但精明的投资者并不想把钱投在这些地方。一位由于担心政府报复而要求只透露其姓氏为许（音）的科技工作者表示，自2023年以来，他已将中国法律允许的最高限额资金存入了一个美国证券账户。Now all of the difficulties created by Beijing’s financial control leave Mr. Xu wondering, “Is my money still mine?”如今，北京的金融管控所造成的所有困难让许先生不禁心生疑问：“我的钱还是我的吗？”Currently, Chinese citizens can legally convert their renminbi savings to $50,000 in foreign currency. Officially, that money can be used only for things like tourism or education, but using the quota for overseas investment in stocks or property has long been a tolerated gray zone.目前，中国公民每年可以合法地将储蓄兑换成5万美元的外汇。官方规定，这些钱只能用于旅游或教育等方面，但利用这一额度投资海外股票或房地产长期以来一直是一个被容忍的灰色地带。For now, the quota remains the only legitimate opening for individuals to move money abroad. But there have been reports that banks are asking more questions about the use of the money, and people are worried that converting renminbi could become more difficult.就目前而言，这一额度仍是个人将资金转移到海外的唯一合法通道。但有报道称，银行对资金用途的询问日益严格，人们担心兑换人民币可能会变得更加困难。“So many people in the world can trade the U.S. stocks. Why can’t the Chinese?” Mr. Xu asked.“世界上这么多人都能交易美股。为什么中国人不行？”许先生问道。He is frustrated that SpaceX has excluded investors in China from participating in its I.P.O., the biggest in history. OpenAI and other potentially lucrative artificial intelligence companies may follow suit.SpaceX在其史上规模最大的IPO中排除了中国投资者，这让他感到沮丧。OpenAI以及其他具有潜在丰厚利润的人工智能公司也可能会效仿。 Others are now trying to slip under the wire and move their money abroad before the government blocks the passage completely.其他人现在正试图抓住最后的机会，在政府彻底封锁通道之前将资金转移到海外。 In the past two weeks, investors feverishly traded workaround tips on social media and in group chats. Some flocked to Hong Kong to open bank and brokerage accounts at smaller firms with looser requirements. Others explored options to visit the United States and open accounts in person.在过去的两周里，投资者在社交媒体和群聊中狂热地交流着各种规避限制的技巧。一些人蜂拥至香港，在要求较为宽松的较小机构开设银行和券商账户。另一些人则在探索亲自前往美国开户的可行性。“No amount of financial controls can prevent people from moving their assets to places that offer better opportunities,” said Stephen, an I.T. worker in Guangdong Province who also asked to be identified by only one name. “再严密的金融管控也无法阻止人们将资产转移到能提供更好机会的地方，”广东省一名只愿透露英文名为史蒂芬的IT工作者说。袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。