US President Donald Trump hailed the deal ending the US-Israel war with Iran with a triumphant message: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote on his online social media platform.But how realistic is a swift resumption of ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz?Oil traders are hopeful. The benchmark price for Brent crude oil has fallen below US$80 a barrel to US$78.96 (A$111.82) for the first time since early March. This signals a belief that Trump’s Iran deal is going to stick, despite the president claiming a peace deal about 40 times The US Navy has said its blockade will remain in place until the agreement is signed on June 19.Even so, it could take at least six months before oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are back to pre-conflict levels, and much longer for liquefied natural gas (LNG), due to Iran’s extensive damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities.Shippers are cautiousA quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 19% of refined petroleum products are carried through the Strait of Hormuz. It also carries about one-fifth of the world’s LNG and a significant share of the global seaborne chemical trade, particularly fertilisers.The conditions of the reopening are ambiguous. There is no published text of the draft agreement, but Iran’s Mehr state news reported there would be a reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements”.However, there should be some near-term supply boost. About 60 tankers loaded with crude oil that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the conflict began in February may be able to start moving oil to markets.Some of these ships are large enough to carry 2 million barrels of oil (roughly two days of Australian oil consumption.But it will take longer for the significant number of ships waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz to enter the Gulf and be loaded, based on maritime traffic tracking data.Is the strait safe?Since Sunday’s announcement, there has been little change to traffic through the strait. And shippers have given a cautious reaction to the draft agreement. Little wonder – 38 vessels have been hit during the conflict: 24 by Iran, four by the US and the rest unconfirmed. According to reports, it could take also months to clear the strait of mines laid by Iran.There are mixed messages coming from Iran and the US, with Tehran saying it will charge a fee for services, while Trump said the strait will be toll-free. This apparent difference has yet to be explained.Much damage is yet to be fixedThe war caused significant damage to energy infrastructure in the region. More than 80 facilities were attacked during the conflict.The recovery will be gradual as damage has affected oil fields, refineries and pipelines across the Persian Gulf, IEA executive chairman Fatih Birol said. This damage includes:United Arab EmiratesLast month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it would take until 2027 before full oil flows will resume, even with an immediate end to the conflict. The UAE is the third-largest oil exporter shipping through the strait behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.IranIranian oil producers should welcome the agreement, which is expected to include a US waiver on oil sanctions that will allow Tehran to sell oil to more customers. However, some of Iran’s energy infrastructure was damaged when Israel struck the South Pars gas field and infrastructure at the nearby Asaluyeh processing hub. Iran said it has restarted production at three offshore platforms in the South Pars gas field, but did not indicate how long it would take to repair the damaged infrastructure.QatarA full recovery of the region’s LNG exports could take up to five years following an Iranian attack on the largest LNG processing facility, Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex. Before the war, this facility was producing 77 million tonnes of LNG – almost 19% of global output last year. QatarEnergy said repairs will see 12.8 million tonnes offline for between three and five years. Australia has weathered the stormIn the early weeks of the war, the IEA warned the Iran conflict was the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. But despite this, Australia has weathered the storm in reasonable shape. The country has been importing record volumes of diesel, boosting stocks of the fuel vital to trucking mining and farming. Diesel accounts for more than half of Australia’s daily oil consumption. As a result, Australia has managed to remain at level 2 of the National Fuel Security Plan, meaning there were no mandatory fuel restrictions. If it eventuates, a permanent peace deal will no doubt be welcomed by all energy users. However, if the deal does not hold and the strait is once again forced to close, prices could rebound higher and drivers will be once again be concerned about future shortages.Kevin Morrison is affiliated with the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).