Fundamental Market Analysis for June 17, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004Events to watch today: 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The yen remains in focus after the Bank of Japan raised its rate to the highest level in several decades. The policy tightening itself did not lead to a strong recovery in the currency, but it changed market perception. Further yen weakness now looks less comfortable for market participants. At elevated USD/JPY values, sensitivity to official warnings and possible action by Japanese authorities increases. The rate differential still supports the dollar, especially ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, where the market will look for signals on the future policy path. However, after the Bank of Japan’s move, this factor no longer looks like the only reference point. If the US central bank does not strengthen expectations of a rate increase, part of the demand for the dollar against the yen may weaken. The yen may also receive additional support from a reassessment of Bank of Japan expectations. For USD/JPY, the key risk is linked not only to the interest rate gap, but also to the authorities’ response to yen weakness. The longer the pair holds near values considered sensitive for Tokyo, the more cautious the market may become toward new dollar buying. Within the current fundamental backdrop, a decline in USD/JPY looks like the more sustainable scenario. Trading idea: SELL 160.350, SL 160.650, TP 159.450