Weekly Bias — 15 JuneInvesco QQQ Trust Series INASDAQ:QQQpakoumalQQQ is sitting directly at decision resistance If Monday, QQQ opens above $721, holds $717-$721 & breaks ~$725, look for $724 → $732 → $740 → $744 The next major liquidity pool sits near $744 If Monday, QQQ rejects $724, loses $717, then $717 → $701 become the likely retracement SPY finished essentially right underneath the pivot, ~$743 As long as SPY stays above $726, buyers remain in control IWM is still the strongest chart IWM effectively closed on resistance A breakout Monday likely targets $298 then $306 Small caps continue to lead Usually supportive of broader risk appetite Bears wanted a breakdown below $700, follow-through toward $677; instead, price flushed to $686 & immediately reclaimed $700, $717 & $721 Looks increasingly like a completed downside sweep From strongest to weakest IWM SPY QQQ Ironically this is bullish When breadth & small caps lead while yields fall, rallies tend to be more durable than when only mega-cap tech is carrying the market The strongest confirmation would be QQQ clearing ~$725 while IWM remains above $293 & SPY reclaims ~$743 QQQ $717 support $721 pivot ~$725 breakout trigger $732 first target $744 major target SPY $743 pivot $760 IWM $293 breakout $298 target A +2% futures gap on a credible Mid-East de-escalation headline changes the opening dynamics The question becomes is this a gap & go trend day or a gap & fade liquidity event? A +2% move projects roughly $735-$737 opening level Means the market would reclaim ~$724 (78.6%), clear $732 & move directly into the next liquidity pocket The biggest mistake traders make on geopolitical gap-ups is assuming the open is the entry since most of the edge comes from determining the type of gap 1. Gap & go First pullback holds Opening range high breaks Volume expands with price QQQ $740 → $744 → ATH SPY $760 IWM $305 2. Gap & fade Opens near $736-$740 Can't make new highs after first 30-60 minutes Volume dries up VIX stops falling Then QQQ retraces toward $732 → $725 before attempting higher 18 June distribution as of Friday's close is centered around QQQ $730-$732 A +2% gap opens the market above the highest probability levels Dealers likely need to chase delta higher Gamma can become supportive if price stays elevated This is how squeeze days develop Given a +2% gap, avoid chasing $725 calls at the open Those were attractive Friday After a +2% gap, the better trade is usually to wait for a pullback into $732-$735 Then 3 July 735C/740C Target $748-$750 If QQQ gaps & goes with no pullback, wait for opening range breakout, then buy calls on confirmation rather than buying the opening print The futures move effectively skips over the $724-$725 confirmation level & immediately puts the market into the $740-$748 resistance area, which is where the real test of whether this is a renewed uptrend or merely a headline-driven squeeze will occur FOMC this week is the biggest reason not to get overly aggressive chasing a +2% geopolitical gap higher Monday Mid-East relief rally SPCX IPO afterglow Positioning adjustment Tuesday FOMC positioning day Wednesday FOMC statement September dot plot Warsh press conference The market only has about 1.5 trading days before the next major macro catalyst The market has NFP, CPI, PPI, consumer sentiment & Geopolitical de-escalation, so now the remaining question is what does the Fed do with the dots? The actual rate decision is likely less important than 2026 dots & 2027 dots & Warsh's tone QQQ is still the most rate-sensitive index If Warsh acknowledges easing inflation, sounds comfortable with disinflation & dots move lower, then QQQ likely clears $748 → target $760 & potentially $772 (138.2% extension) If Warsh pushes back on cuts, emphasizes inflation risks & keeps dots elevated, then QQQ could easily see $740 → $725 or even $740 → $717 because a lot of the recent recovery has been built on falling yields The market is likely opening directly into the area where prior buyers got trapped, the wedge/bear flag failed & distribution began, so that area is not insignificant The sell-off volume was larger than the recovery volume, which is a strong reason not to view this as a confirmed breakout as of now, but more of a recovery phase vs trend resumption Given geopolitical relief & Wednesday FOMC, buy pullbacks rather than buying gaps Support $732 $725 Resistance $740 $744 $748 If futures hold, the key level is $740-$748 Prior highs exist Sellers appeared Liquidity resides FOMC risk begins getting priced Assuming futures remain near +2% Into Wednesday FOMC range between $732 & $748 (~50%) Breakout above $748 before FOMC (~30%) Gap fades back below $725 (~20%) So expect the market to spend the next 2 sessions probing the $740-$748 supply area, then let Warsh decide whether that level becomes a launchpad toward $760-$772 or another rejection point as the most important level on the board shifts from ~$725 to ~$748, because that's the last major swing high standing between QQQ & price discovery higher