AUDUSD Hits Weekly Supply Zone — Downtrend Resumption ShortAustralian Dollar vs. US DollarFX:AUDUSDPickMyTrade_OfficialAUDUSD has staged a 1,270-pip recovery from its April 2026 lows at 0.5915 — and that 10-week rally has now delivered price directly into the weekly supply zone that began the previous leg down. The level between 0.7169 and 0.7307 is where institutions sold aggressively in early 2025, producing a decisive drop. That zone has not been re-tested since. The question now: are the same sellers still there? --- MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS HTF (Weekly): - Trend: Downtrend — lower highs and lower lows intact since the 2021 peak at 0.8007 - Location: Price at the top of the weekly range — expensive territory, consistent with a supply zone entry LTF (Daily — zone details): - Zone Type: RBD (Rally-Base-Drop) — supply zone - Zone Range: 0.7169 (proximal) — 0.7307 (distal) - Zone Quality Score: 7.3/10 - Departure: 10/10 — sharp, decisive leg out of the base - Originality: 10/10 — never re-tested since formation - Profit Margin: 10/10 — full target range clear of obstacles - Arrival: 10/10 — clean impulse return to the zone - Base Duration: 4/10 --- FUNDAMENTAL BIAS — 5-FACTOR ANALYSIS - Valuation: Neutral — no opposing signal, gate passes for short - COT Index: Neutral — no extreme positioning in AUD futures - Seasonality: Neutral — June offers no directional edge for this pair - Location: Bearish — price at expensive extreme of the weekly range - Trend: Bearish — downtrend confirmed, lower highs and lower lows Consensus: Location + Trend + Valuation + COT + Seasonality = 2/5 Trade context: Standard with-trend — selling a counter-trend rally back into an established downtrend Risk level: 0.5% (forex tier) --- TRADE PLAN Direction Short Entry 0.7169 (zone proximal — confirmation entry) Stop Loss 0.7307 (above zone distal — 138 pips) Breakeven Move stop to entry at half-distance to Target 1 Target 1 0.7031 (1R — 138 pips) — stop to breakeven Target 2 0.6893 (2R — 276 pips) — close 50% here Target 3 0.6755 (3R — 414 pips) — trail remainder R:R 1:2 to T2 / 1:3 to T3 Timeframe Weekly structure / Daily confirmation Risk 0.5% max --- INVALIDATION The bearish thesis fails on a weekly close above 0.7307 — that breaks through the zone distal and signals the supply has been fully absorbed. A hawkish RBA pivot or significant USD weakness would also reverse the rate differential and flip this pair structurally bullish. --- WHAT THIS SETUP TEACHES A supply zone loses its edge each time it is re-tested, because every visit lets trapped sellers partially exit at breakeven — reducing the available sell orders. A zone that has never been re-visited since its formation still carries the full original order size. That is why first-test zones carry the highest probability in Blueprint methodology. --- YOUR TURN Are you watching AUDUSD from the short side — or do you think the recovery still has further to go? Drop your levels in the comments. --- Educational analysis based on supply/demand methodology. Not financial advice. Always use proper risk management.