US April business inventories +0.5% vs +0.5% expected

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Prior was +0.9%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.6 vs +0.6% priorInventory-to-sales ratio 1.31 months vs 1.32 months priorBusiness sales +1.2% vs +2.2% priorThis report is almost never a market mover but it's an important component of GDP and will offer an early clue on how Q2 is shaping up.For background, the Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report (MTIS), published by the Census Bureau, is the broadest read on stock levels across the economy. It stitches together three separate surveys — retail, wholesale, and manufacturing inventories and sales — into one combined picture, and lands roughly six weeks after month-end, so it lags the retail sales print and rarely surprises. The wholesale and manufacturing components are already public by the time MTIS drops; only the retail piece is fresh. Figures are seasonally adjusted but not deflated, so price moves muddy the dollar levels here too.The number to watch is the inventories-to-sales ratio — effectively how many months of stock businesses are sitting on. It's a cleaner signal than the raw dollar level, and it flags whether firms are over- or under-stocked relative to demand.Through March, total business inventories rose to $2,709.7 billion, up 0.9% on the month. But the I/S ratio slipped to 1.32, down from 1.38 a year earlier — inventories are growing, yet sales are growing faster, leaving businesses leaner than they were. That's a constructive signal: lean stock positioning means less risk of a forced destocking drag and supports forward production.Underneath, wholesale inventories rose 1.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, with the wholesale I/S ratio at 1.21 versus 1.30 a year ago — the same lean story. For GDP, inventory investment is a volatile swing factor; lean positioning here argues against an inventory-led growth scare. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.