AUD/USD (6A) — Swing Analysis June 13, 2026Australian Dollar FuturesCME:6A1!marcovisoBearish bias, no open position, waiting for pullback. The Australian Dollar is under structural pressure: the yield advantage of Australian rates over US rates is compressing rapidly, the US PPI came in well above expectations (1.1% vs 0.7% forecast) and the US Dollar maintains a dominant daily uptrend. Large speculative funds reduced their long exposure on AUD by over 23,600 contracts in a single week, a clear sign of growing disengagement. In the short term a technical bounce is underway, but it is happening on very low volume: there are no real institutional buyers supporting the move. The current price at 0.7032 sits just 32 pips above a significant institutional floor at 0.7000, where nearly 1,800 July PUT contracts are clustered. Selling here means selling directly above a wall of buyers: the risk/reward is insufficient. The strategy is to wait for the ongoing bounce to carry price toward the institutional resistance at 0.7050/0.7055, a confluence zone between July and June CALL options and recent technical highs. Only if price is rejected from that zone is a Short entry considered, with stop at 0.7105 and target at 0.6900, for a risk/reward ratio of 1:2.73. If price breaks above 0.7055 with strength, no entry. If price breaks directly below 0.7000, do not chase: wait for a retest of the level before reassessing. Key calendar risks this week: RBA on June 16 and FOMC on June 17 can generate sharp moves on open swing positions.