Market Overview — 16.06U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYTylerWhite_Good morning team We can finally close the chapter on the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Yesterday, the memorandum was officially signed, and the full text has now appeared in the media. We’ll talk about that first, but there were also several other major events yesterday, so today’s update will probably be one of the longest in a while. There’s a lot to discuss. Let’s start with the memorandum. Even before the text was officially published, it was already being discussed during hearings in the U.S. Congress. One Republican congressman said something interesting — he basically said people shouldn’t focus too much on the wording itself, but rather on the overall meaning of the agreement. That already suggested the deal might not look very favorable for the United States. Later in the evening, (https://www.cnn.com?utm_source=chatgpt.com), (https://www.axios.com?utm_source=chatgpt.com), and other major U.S. media outlets published the same version of the document almost word for word, which confirmed that the agreement was real. So what matters most? First, there is an official ceasefire and the removal of the U.S. blockade. But the most interesting part is that the memorandum includes exactly the points that Donald Trump had publicly denied just a few days ago. He said there would be no sanctions relief, no asset unfreezing, and no compensation for Iran. In reality, all of that is in the agreement. The document includes a full removal of sanctions on Iran. And this doesn’t appear to apply only to U.S. sanctions — it seems broader than that. There’s also a clause regarding the unfreezing of Iranian assets. The exact amount is still unclear, and there’s no detailed explanation of how it will be implemented, but the provision is clearly there. In addition, there is a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. Officially, it’s described as an international recovery fund. But in practice, it looks very much like reparations. Of course, no official agreement would explicitly use that word. Interestingly, Gulf countries have already started distancing themselves from this. For example, Saudi Arabia stated that it knows nothing about such a fund. As for the nuclear program, the language is fairly vague. Iran commits to complying with international rules and refraining from further nuclear weapons development, but many details remain unclear. Now let’s talk about the most important part for markets: the Strait of Hormuz. There’s a very important detail here. The document does not say the strait is permanently reopened. It says safe passage for ships will be guaranteed for 60 days. After that, Iran and Oman are expected to negotiate a long-term framework for managing the strait. That means the situation could change again in two months. For example, Iran could impose new transit conditions or fees. That risk remains. To put it simply, the deal looks highly favorable for Iran. And if you compare this to how Trump once criticized Barack Obama for unfreezing $1.7 billion in Iranian assets, the contrast is striking: over $25 billion in unfrozen assets, a $300 billion recovery fund, and full sanctions relief. In comparison, Obama’s deal now looks much less controversial. But for us as traders, what matters most is the practical outcome: an end to military escalation, stabilized logistics, and a more predictable oil market. Now let’s move to the second major topic — the (https://www.federalreserve.gov?utm_source=chatgpt.com) meeting. As expected, the interest rate was left unchanged at 3.75%. But the real story came during the press conference. Warsh came out with an extremely hawkish tone — even more aggressive than Jerome Powell. If we strip away all the political language, the key message was simple: 6 out of 7 Fed members support raising rates this year. That means the probability of a rate hike remains very high. They also revised forward guidance. Under Powell, the average projected rate for 2026 was around 3.4%. Now it has been raised to 3.8%. For 2027, the forecast moved from 3.1% to 3.6%. That is a significant shift. And honestly, this is not a great signal for markets. There’s still no major reason for optimism here. We also got U.S. crude oil inventory data yesterday. And the situation there is not improving. Inventories fell by another 8.2 million barrels this week. That’s worse than forecasts and worse than previous weeks. In other words, the U.S. continues to aggressively draw down strategic reserves. And remember — reserves are already near their lowest levels since the 1980s. That remains an important support factor for oil prices. Even with the ceasefire, it’s unlikely the oil market rebalances quickly. All of these events happened almost at the same time yesterday, which explains the massive volatility. You probably saw the sharp moves — especially in gold, currencies, and stock indices. As for today, the key event is the interest rate decision in the United Kingdom. I don’t expect surprises there. Most likely, there will be divided voting, but the rate itself will probably remain unchanged at 3.75%. We’ll also get the Fed balance sheet report. This matters because it gives us insight not just into rates, but into liquidity conditions. We need to understand whether the Fed plans to continue tightening financial conditions and draining liquidity, or if they may eventually ease. That could cause significant volatility later in the day and into the evening, so stay alert. Overall, we continue trading as usual, but carefully. Trading ideas will be posted in the private community as always. Have a great trading day, everyone.