FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWGold sold off yesterday as the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projectinga rate hike this year in the dot plot, effectively adopting a tightening biasin the short-term. Following the first spike lower, the price consolidated abit as traders waited for Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference. Onceeveryone realised that he wouldn’t add anything new and wouldn’t give anyforward guidance, the losses extended as the bearish bets increased on higher realyields. The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh statedthat “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and areless efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to theincoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important sourceof information to guide the central bank”. Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under FedChair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he saidthat “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warshand the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its pricestability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missingsince 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. Traders are now pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike at the next meetingin July, which rises to 65% for September (the most likely scenario). There’s atotal of 37 bps of tightening priced in by year-end compared to just 18 bpsbefore the Fed’s decision. This should keep weighing on gold at least until thenext set of economic data.As mentioned previously, the risk now is that the negative supply shock causedby the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends andoil prices drop significantly. That could boost economic activity furtherrequiring rate hikes anyway. GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold rejected the previous swing low around the 4,360 level anddropped on the hawkish Fed decision. The price is now testing the major upward trendlinewith the buyers stepping in with a defined risk below it to target a breakabove the 4,360 level and extend the rally into the 4,600 level next. Thesellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below thetrendline to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the positive gap was closed following the selloff after the Fed’s decision.The price bounced on the support zone around the 4,240 level as dip-buyers steppedin to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers will want to see the pricebreaking the support to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here but if the price gets stuck in the 4,240-4,360 range,we can expect the sellers to keep stepping in around the resistance and thedownward trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will need abreak higher to open the door for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the latestUS Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.