DXY | The hawkish signal with a built-in expiry dateU.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYAlchemyMarketsThe June FOMC was billed as a quiet hold and on the headline rate it delivered exactly that, unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Everything wrapped around that hold was the story. The dot plot flipped from a projected cut to a projected hike. Headline PCE inflation forecasts jumped to 3.6 percent, core to 3.3, while growth was trimmed and the easing language was stripped out of the statement entirely. The 2-year yield led the move higher, equities sold off, and the dollar caught a bid into resistance. Here is the part most desks are not pricing. The hawkish jolt came almost entirely from the SEP projections, and Chair Warsh withheld his own dot, launched a task force to overhaul the tool, and has said on record he wants forward guidance gone. The instrument that just moved markets is the one he is dismantling. That matters for the chart. DXY is pressing the 100.00 to 100.60 band that has capped every rally since mid-2025, sitting inside a rising channel off the February low. The hawkish dots give the breakout fuel. The guidance vacuum is the reason it may not hold. A clean daily close above 100.60 opens the channel higher. Rejection here sends it back toward channel support. The level is doing the talking, not the narrative.