BTC Short Bias — Watching 63,500–64,500 foBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDedawgtrades Bitcoin's price action is aligned bearishly across multiple timeframes right now and the macro backdrop is only adding to the pressure. The Fed held rates unchanged but delivered a hawkish shock, sending strong signals that higher rates could be coming later this year, with rate cuts now essentially off the table for 2026. On top of that, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $90.7 million on Thursday alone, following an $82.2 million outflow the day before, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped all the way down to 15, placing sentiment deep in extreme fear territory. This is not an environment that favors chasing longs. Yahoo FinanceSubstack Technically, the picture is just as bearish. On the 4H chart price failed at the 67,000 area and has been making lower highs ever since, with the 63,500–64,500 zone now acting as resistance after previously being support. The daily and weekly charts are also showing the same story — EMAs are sloping downward, momentum has rolled over, and every significant bounce has been sold into. There is no timeframe right now that is giving a bullish signal worth trusting. The MACD on the 4H is negative with both lines below zero and the RSI is sitting at 43.85, stuck below the 50 midline and unable to reclaim it despite the most recent bounce attempt. This kind of weak momentum on a relief rally into resistance is exactly the type of setup that tends to resolve lower. The area I am watching is the 63,500–64,500 zone. If price retraces back into that range and starts showing signs of rejection on the lower timeframes — such as bearish engulfing candles, failed breakouts, or momentum divergence — that is where a short scalp setup could develop. With the options expiration compression already behind us and institutional liquidity reduced, there is limited buying pressure to sustain any meaningful recovery right now. No setup is forced here, but if price comes back to that zone and gives confirmation, the path of least resistance remains down. Substack Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.