Hang Seng Tech trapped in the AI slow laneHong Kong Tech Index CFDFOREXCOM:HSTECHdavidscuttTechnically, Hang Seng Tech looks horrible, stuck in a powerful downtrend beneath each of its key medium and longer-term moving averages. And just when it looks like the index will break the bearish trend, we see one almighty reversal, as seen in the twin failed breakouts earlier this year. Yet, despite RSI (14) and MACD providing a uniformly bearish message by revealing downside momentum is continuing to build, 4620 support has proven tough for bears to crack thus far. Since being established in March, it's been tested on multiple occasions, including earlier today, yet has continued to hold firm. Yes, there was one successful probe beneath it, but it was quickly jammed back higher. As such, even though price and momentum favours shorts over longs, until if and when it breaks, 4620 remains the focal point for traders, allowing for setup construction on both the long and short side. If we were to see a break and close beneath the level, there's very little support to speak of until the Liberation Day swing low of 4250, making that an obvious target. A close beneath 4620, preferably followed by a retest and rejection, would strengthen conviction in the trade, with a stop above the level protecting against reversal. However, as the price action has shown lately, even though the downtrend overhead continues to compress ranges, that doesn't eliminate the possibility of playing for countertrend bounces, as we saw last week. If the index can't crack 4620, longs could be set with a stop below for protection, targeting either 4820 resistance or the October downtrend found just below 5000 today. The longer the index fails to break decisively below 4620, the more it may encourage those bulls who remain to squeeze in search of a sustained breakout. Good luck! DS