Iran does not need a deal right now because its military or political room for manoeuvre has narrowed. It needs one because the crisis has turned oil (Tehran’s most important economic weapon) into a problematic asset. For years, Iran’s export model survived sanctions by leaning on China, discounted barrels, ship-to-ship transfers, and a shadow logistics chain running from Kharg Island to Malaysia, Singapore and China’s independent refining system. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has not destroyed that model, but it has hit…