$SPX MoU | Economic Reports | 8000 S&P 500SP:SPXMerloClover-PugetPointCapitalLast night I was thinking about this whole MoU and how this might play out. Here's my theory. I don't this the US - Iran war is over. The MoU is a big loss with a huge global power shift. Which Iran gains everything and the world gains nothing. The world is in worse condition than we were going into this war. Structurally, the oil trade was at its global recession levels if this would go on for another 30 days we could all be in a recession or worse we could enter a depression so structurally we had to pause with any terms risk management. I think they'll likely pick up again in August/September or Q1 2027. likely Q1 So this accounts for a kick the Can or a couple of tacos to happen. which aligns with events 1. world cup 2. gdp releases and other notable data 3. FOMC Sept 4. midterms if we go to q1 So if oil falls what does that do? It makes every headline inflation reports look like its improving and the economy is doing better. Also because people will be paying less at the pump they'll feel like the economy is improving and doing better. But once things stabilize we could go right back to Opening Hormuz The more i think about this i think we're going to hit 8000. I'm totally opposed to it but this sets us up for that kind of move. here are correction levels from 8k which land on key zones SPX