The jump in September hike probability from 30% to above 50% after the decision reflects the dot plot shift rather than any clarity from Warsh himself, which is precisely the problem for rates markets. Without a framework explaining how the committee reasons about inflation and growth, every data print becomes a binary event and volatility around CPI and payrolls releases will stay elevated. BNP Paribas is the most aggressive on the street, expecting three hikes beginning in December that would reverse all of last year's cuts. The task forces may serve as a consensus-building device within the committee as much as an operational overhaul, buying Warsh time to bring a divided room around to his views. Until his framework becomes legible, the market is effectively pricing a black box.---September Fed hike odds topped 50% after Warsh's debut but analysts warn he stripped away not just forward guidance but any explanation of how the committee now reasons about policy. Summary:Source: Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal (gated)September hike probability rose above 50% after the decision, up from around 30% the previous day, per CME Group futures pricingJPMorgan's chief US economist said Warsh discarded not just rate predictions but any account of the committee's reasoning frameworkBlackRock's Rick Rieder called the meeting the start of a new era, arguing less communication could reduce volatility if it builds confidenceBNP Paribas expects three hikes beginning in December, reversing all of last year's cutsAnalysts remain unable to determine whether Warsh is an inflation hawk or a sympathiser of lower ratesTask forces seen by some as a device to buy time and rebuild trust with a committee whose decisions Warsh had spent years criticisingKevin Warsh's debut as Federal Reserve chairman left investors with higher rate hike probabilities and lower certainty about how to price the path ahead, as the new chair made good on his long-standing argument that the Fed says too much while offering markets little in return.The probability of a hike by September jumped above 50% after the decision, up from around 30% the day before, driven by the hawkish dot plot and Warsh's unambiguous commitment to returning inflation to 2%. But Warsh himself remained, as one veteran described him, a black box.JPMorgan's chief US economist Michael Feroli drew a distinction that cut to the heart of the problem. Withholding predictions about the next rate move is defensible. Withholding the framework by which the committee reasons about a hotter economy or rising prices is something else. That is not forward guidance, Feroli said. That is having a framework. By the end of the news conference, he said he was no closer to understanding how the committee now conducts its deliberations.Opinion on the overhaul was divided. BlackRock's Rick Rieder, whom President Trump had considered for the chairmanship, called the meeting the dawn of a new era, arguing that less communication could reduce volatility over time if it builds confidence in the Fed's resolve. BNP Paribas took the most aggressive rate view on the street, expecting three hikes beginning in December that would reverse all of last year's cuts.Others framed the task forces as a political as much as an operational exercise, a way for Warsh to build consensus within a committee whose decisions he had spent years criticising before taking the top job. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.