AZADEH MOAVENI2026年6月18日On Oct. 22, 1951, Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh of Iran stood before the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia. Addressing a crowd of hundreds at Independence Hall, Mossadegh spoke admiringly of American liberty, drawing parallels between the U.S. struggle for independence and Iran’s then-continuing struggle to break free of British control over its affairs and natural resources.1951年10月22日，伊朗首相穆罕默德·摩萨台站在了费城自由钟前。他对独立厅数百名观众赞赏地谈起美国的自由，将美国争取独立的斗争与伊朗当时为摆脱英国对其事务和自然资源控制的斗争相提并论。“The creed of national independence is a universal one, and it is held by all peoples,” he declared in his morose, trademark whisper.“民族独立的信条是普世的，为所有民族所秉持，”他以标志性的低沉、忧郁的语调宣布。Two years later, the United States and Britain deposed the Iranian prime minister in a coup over his decision to nationalize Iranian oil and take control of the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. As large swathes of the world embraced new national identities in the wake of colonialism, Mossadegh’s name became synonymous with the quest for independence and the fight against Western imperialism, his ouster still bitterly invoked across the global south to conjure the misadventures of American foreign policy.两年后，由于摩萨台决定将伊朗石油国有化并接管英国所有的英伊石油公司，美国和英国通过政变推翻了这位伊朗首相。随着世界大片地区在后殖民时代拥抱新的国家认同，摩萨台的名字成了争取独立和反抗西方帝国主义的同义词。直到今天，全球南方仍在痛苦地提起他被推翻的往事，用来提醒人们记得美国外交政策的种种妄为。Today, Iran’s defiance in the face of Western coercion has once again become a rallying cry. President Trump’s feckless war has rendered America’s targeting of Iran into a premonitory tale — a violent punishment that could befall any disorderly state. This spring, solidarity, support and indignation on behalf of Iran have reverberated across the non-Western world. Even countries that do not at all admire the Iranian regime’s treatment of its own people, or its conduct in the region, are experiencing a “Je suis Iran” moment.今天，伊朗对西方胁迫的反抗再次成为一种号召。特朗普总统的这场无能的战争已将美国对伊朗的打击变成一个警世故事——任何不守规矩的国家都可能遭受的暴力惩罚。今年春天，对伊朗的声援、支持和因之而生的义愤在西方以外的世界回荡。即使那些完全不赞同伊朗政权对待本国人民的方式或其在地区行为的国家也经历了一个“Je suis Iran”（我是伊朗）的时刻。This sense of outrage is due in no small part to the fact that the United States and Israel went to war against Iran as the world was again reordering itself — this time, to adapt to Mr. Trump’s transactional and predatory behavior. Small and middle powers are thinking about ways to assert their sovereignty, in some cases by reducing their dependence on the United States and cultivating trade and relations with China and other powers.这种愤怒在很大程度上是因为，美国和以色列在世界秩序重塑之际对伊朗发动战争——这一次，是为了适应特朗普交易式和掠夺式的行为。小国和中等强国正在思考如何维护主权，有些情况下是通过减少对美国的依赖，并加强与中国及其他大国的贸易和关系。The war against Iran rapidly became an inflection point in this trajectory. Not only has Iran shown that it can control a major maritime chokepoint, squeeze the global economy and withstand aerial assault by the world’s strongest military, the conflict has also offered its leaders a new place in the emerging global realignment. From the blackest margins of the old order — isolated, sanctioned, ignored and reviled as a ruthless, repressive state — Iran has become, in the eyes of many, an example of necessary defiance, and courage.对伊朗的战争迅速成为这一轨迹的转折点。伊朗不仅展示了它能够控制一个重要的海上咽喉要道、挤压全球经济，并承受世界上最强大军事力量的空中打击，这场冲突也为其领导人在正在形成的全球格局重塑中找到了新的立足之地。伊朗曾是旧秩序最黑暗的边缘国家：被孤立、制裁、忽视并被斥为残酷的压迫性国家，如今在许多人眼中它已成为必要的反抗与勇气的典范。The deposal of Mossadegh in 1953 left Iran traumatized and its people deeply wary of Washington’s designs. Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi never recovered the legitimacy he lost by cooperating with America, and doubts about his true independence coalesced into the 1979 revolution. After that, the tension between the new Islamic republic and America turned to violent enmity.1953年推翻摩萨台让伊朗深受创伤，也让伊朗人民对华盛顿的意图深感警惕。沙阿穆罕默德·礼萨·巴列维因与美国合作而永远失去了合法性，对他的独立性的怀疑最终凝聚成1979年的革命。此后，新成立的伊斯兰共和国与美国之间的紧张关系演变为暴力敌对。The language of political contestation between the nations transformed from the courtly phrases of the earlier Mossadegh era to the new leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s describing America as “the Great Satan, the wounded snake” and “the No. 1 enemy of the deprived and oppressed people of the world.” American rhetoric deteriorated as well. President Ronald Reagan referred to Iran’s leaders — along with the rulers of Cuba, Libya, North Korea and Nicaragua — as “misfits, Looney Tunes and squalid criminals.” By the late 2000s, John McCain and Hillary Clinton made casual, violent threats to bomb Iran normal foreign policy talk.两国之间政治对抗的语言发生了变化，从早期摩萨台时代的文雅措辞转变为新领导人阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼将美国描述为“大撒旦、受伤的蛇”和“被剥夺者和世界被压迫人民的第一号敌人”。美国的言辞也恶化了。罗纳德·里根总统将伊朗领导人——连同古巴、利比亚、朝鲜和尼加拉瓜的统治者——称为“怪胎、卡通疯子和肮脏的罪犯”。到2000年代后期，约翰·麦凯恩和希拉里·克林顿将武断、残酷的轰炸威胁变成了正常的外交政策话语。Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khomeini’s successor as supreme leader, kept up the same coarse, fulminating tone until his assassination in an American-Israeli airstrike on Feb. 28. Eleven days before his death, Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, called the United States “an empire that is heading toward collapse.”霍梅尼的继任者、最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊一直保持着同样尖锐、激烈抨击的语气，直到他在2月28日美国-以色列空袭中被杀。去世前11天，86岁的哈梅内伊称美国是“一个正在走向崩溃的帝国”。When Iran’s newest group of leaders look out, they must hear this narrative echoing across the world. While China’s and Russia’s interests in the Middle East are vastly different — Beijing has extensive economic interests in the region, and disfavors high oil prices, neither of which is true for Moscow — both benefit when America overextends itself, and they have cast themselves as major powers ready to expand ties with the regional blocs that have suffered from and disapproved of the war.当伊朗最新一代领导人放眼世界，他们一定能听到这个叙事在全世界回荡。虽然中国和俄罗斯在中东的利益大不相同——北京在该地区有广泛的经济利益，且不希望油价过高，而莫斯科并非如此——但当美国过度扩张时，两国都从中受益，它们将自己定位为准备扩大与受战争影响并反对战争的地区集团联系的主要大国。When China’s president, Xi Jinping, hosted his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Beijing last month, the two leaders condemned “treacherous” U.S. strikes against other countries, and Mr. Xi warned against the world “regressing to the law of the jungle.” While Beijing prudently preferred to condemn the war rather than openly back Iran, it found a subtle way to express its support: In March, in a highly unusual move, the Chinese state broadcaster put out an artificial intelligence video featuring America as the villainous “White Eagle” and Iran as the hunted but proud “Persian Cat.” The video became a crossover hit on Western social platforms.上个月，中国国家主席习近平在北京接待俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京时，两位领导人谴责美国对其他国家的“背信弃义”的打击，习近平警告世界不要“倒回丛林法则”。北京谨慎地选择谴责战争而非公开支持伊朗，但它找到了一种微妙的方式表达支持：3月，中国官方电视台以极不寻常的方式发布了一段人工智能视频，将美国描绘成邪恶的“白鹰”，伊朗则是被猎杀但骄傲的“波斯猫”。这段视频在西方社交平台风靡一时。Some smaller countries have been more explicit. In March, the Malaysian Parliament observed a minute of silence over the killings of Ayatollah Khamenei, other Iranian leaders and, in an airstrike on a school in Minab, approximately 120 children. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim sent condolences to both the regime and the Iranian people and warned of a “dangerous precedent” that would weaken the norms of the international order.一些较小的国家表达得更为明确。3月，马来西亚议会为哈梅内伊、其他伊朗领导人以及在米纳布一所学校空袭中遇难的约120名儿童默哀一分钟。总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣向政权和伊朗人民致以慰问，并警告这将开创一个“危险先例”，削弱国际秩序的规范。In Pakistan, the editorial pages of the leading English-language newspaper, Dawn, concluded that countries of the global south “should stand with Iran” and condemn the war because “they may be next.” Pro-Iran demonstrations erupted across the nation in March, leaving more than 20 people dead.在巴基斯坦，主要英文报纸《黎明报》的社论得出结论，全球南方国家“应该与伊朗站在一起”并谴责这场战争，因为“下一个可能就是他们”。3月，亲伊朗示威在全国爆发，导致20多人死亡。In Turkey, an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim country, 93 percent of the people polled opposed the attack on Iran, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the “senseless, unlawful” war was starting to weaken Europe.在以逊尼派穆斯林为主的土耳其，93%的受访民众反对对伊朗的攻击，总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安警告这场“无意义、非法的”战争正开始削弱欧洲。In India, while the government of Narendra Modi has professed itself a close ally of Israel, the people, who share a historical and cultural affinity with Iran, have responded differently. Residents of New Delhi, including Hindu nationalist supporters of Mr. Modi, brought enough donations to the door of the Iranian Embassy to fund a shipment of medication. In Kashmir, farmers donated their sheep, and women donated their gold bangles and daughters’ trousseaux to an aid collection drive.在印度，虽然纳伦德拉·莫迪政府自称是以色列的亲密盟友，但与伊朗有着历史和文化亲缘的印度民众反应不同。包括莫迪的印度教民族主义支持者，新德里的居民向伊朗大使馆捐赠了足够资助一批药品的物资。在克什米尔，农民捐赠绵羊，妇女捐赠金手镯和女儿的嫁妆，用于援助募集活动。In other parts of the world, the war quickly kicked up long-simmering concerns about sovereignty. In Africa, autonomy-seeking movements are already driving politics in West Africa and the Sahel, seeking to reduce dependence on Europe’s donors and end partnerships with its militaries. Those movements now look prescient, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exacted a brutal price across the continent.在世界其他地区，这场战争迅速激起了长期酝酿的主权担忧。在非洲，寻求自治的运动已在西非和萨赫勒地区驱动政治，试图减少对欧洲捐助者的依赖并结束与其军队的伙伴关系。随着霍尔木兹海峡关闭给非洲大陆带来残酷代价，这些运动如今显得富有先见之明。The war in Iran is a “warning,” wrote Faiez Jacobs, a former South African lawmaker, arguing that wars “now arrive in households through petrol prices, electricity insecurity, bread costs and job losses.” His argument, echoed widely in the continent’s press, is that Africa must detach from “systems designed elsewhere and controlled elsewhere,” and turn to continental and BRICS cooperation on everything from payment alternatives and industrial corridors to maritime strategies.南非前议员法伊兹·雅各布写道，伊朗战争是非洲的“警告”，认为战争“现在通过汽油价格、电力不稳、面包价格和失业进入家庭”。他的观点在非洲大陆媒体上得到广泛呼应，即非洲必须脱离“在别处设计并由别处控制的体系”，转向非洲内部和金砖国家的合作，涵盖从支付替代方案、工业走廊到海上战略等一切领域。There are exceptions, of course, especially among countries that are deeply polarized along religious lines, or those that have strong ties to Israel and the Persian Gulf states. Many governments have chosen to simply say nothing, in some cases, perhaps, out of concern over where Mr. Trump will turn his attention next.当然也有例外，尤其是那些在宗教线路上严重分裂的国家，或与以色列和波斯湾国家有紧密联系的国家。许多政府选择保持沉默，在某些情况下，或许是出于担心特朗普下一步会把注意力转向何处。In Cuba, people follow the conflict avidly during the short hours of the day when they have electricity, the historian Sara Kozameh told me. “For Cubans, it matters whether Iran wins, since a defeat of the United States could reduce the likelihood of an attack on Cuba,” she said. “But they also understand that Trump needs to feel like he got a win, so that he doesn’t attack Cuba to get one.”在古巴，历史学家萨拉·科扎梅告诉我，人们在一天中有电的短暂时间里密切关注冲突。“对古巴人来说，伊朗是否获胜很重要，因为美国失败会降低美国攻击古巴的可能性，”她说。“但他们也明白，特朗普需要感觉他赢了一场，这样他就不会为了获胜而去攻击古巴。”Iran has played the role of iconoclastic challenger to an unjust world order before. In the wake of decolonization, it was the first major Middle Eastern oil-producing country to attempt the nationalization of its oil sector. When Mossadegh stopped in Egypt in 1951, 250,000 people reportedly lined the streets of Cairo, many of them chanting, “Long live the leader of anti-imperialism!”伊朗此前曾扮演过挑战不公正世界秩序的弑神者角色。在非殖民化之后，它是中东第一个试图将石油部门国有化的主要产油国。1951年摩萨台在埃及停留时，据报有25万民众涌上开罗街头，许多人高呼：“反帝领袖万岁！”Then came the coup. Mossadegh failed, but his audacity helped usher in a new world order. An inspired Egyptian president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, closely studied his approach and missteps, and triumphantly nationalized the Suez Canal three years after Mossadegh was overthrown.随后政变发生。摩萨台失败了，但他的大胆举动帮助开启了一个新世界秩序。受到启发的埃及总统贾迈勒·阿卜杜勒·纳赛尔仔细研究了他的方法和失误，并在摩萨台被推翻三年后成功将苏伊士运河国有化。Today there are no great crowds cheering an adversary of empire. We have, instead, an online public sphere that Iran’s propagandists have flooded with Lego videos to make its case to the world’s young people. Some people have claimed Iran is “winning the vibe war.”今天没有大批人群为帝国的对手欢呼。取而代之的是一个在线公共领域，伊朗的宣传人员频频推出乐高视频，向世界年轻人阐述其立场。有些人声称伊朗“赢得了魅力战”。It is mostly bookish elites who remember the 1950s, and the earlier round of Iran versus Empire. “Does tonight resemble last night?” asked the veteran Egyptian diplomat Walid Abdelnasser in the newspaper Al-Ahram, recalling Mossadegh’s visit to Cairo and suggesting that this time around, it would be a military attack, not a stealthy coup, that would come for Iran’s oil wealth. In fact, the governments in Washington and Tel Aviv contemplated a mini-regime change, too, with a plot to install the former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.如今还记得1950年代以及更早那轮伊朗对抗帝国的人大多是书生气的精英。“今晚是否像昨晚？”埃及资深外交官瓦利德·阿卜杜勒纳赛尔在《金字塔报》问道，他回忆摩萨台访问开罗，并暗示这一次，针对伊朗石油财富的将是军事攻击，而非隐秘政变。事实上，华盛顿和特拉维夫的政府也曾考虑过小规模的政权更迭行动，策划扶植前总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德。What unites disparate small and medium-size countries in parsing the lessons of this war is the belief that they are standing on shaky ground. They now know with certainty, if they did not know before, that their own wealth and economies can be imperiled by this new Washington, unbound by the international guardrails established last century, and will spend the years ahead repositioning themselves. The world will seek new ground to stand on, as friends and foes adjust.小国和中等国家从这场战争中得出了相同的认知，这是因为它们知道此刻一切摇摇欲坠。它们现在很清楚——如果以前不知道的话——自己的财富和经济可能被这个不受上世纪建立的国际护栏约束的新华盛顿所威胁，并将在未来几年重新定位自己。世界将寻找新的立足之地，而朋友和敌人都在调整。Some disagree that Iran’s successful defiance of the United States will diminish America’s influence. American military defeat is, after all, nothing new: Most of America’s military interventions since World War II — Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq — have ended as meandering, low-level conflicts that few would call victory. The policy expert Gideon Rose views “loose talk” about the war signaling a broader loss of U.S. power as overblown; after losing in Vietnam, he recently wrote, America rebounded and could very likely do so again.有些人不同意伊朗成功反抗美国会削弱美国的影响力。毕竟，美国军事失败并非新鲜事：二战以来美国大多数军事干预——越南、朝鲜、阿富汗和伊拉克——最终都沦为漫长而低烈度的冲突，鲜有人称之为胜利。政策专家吉迪恩·罗斯认为，关于这场战争标志着美国权力更广泛丧失的“轻率言论”被夸大了；他在最近文章中写道，美国在越南失败后能东山再起，这一次可能还是可以做到。Perhaps it is Iran’s fate to find itself again, for the second time in a century, the subject of American aggression and the rebel protagonist of the non-Western world. Its millenniums of history as a nation have made the preservation of sovereignty Iran’s all-consuming drive, regardless of who runs it.或许伊朗的宿命就是在百年内第二次成为美国侵略的对象和非西方世界的反叛主角。作为一个拥有数千年历史的国家，维护主权已成为伊朗压倒一切的驱动力，无论执政者是谁，这一点始终不变。Where, for the long meanwhile, does this disordered story leave Iranians themselves? For them, matters are far more complicated. This wave of solidarity and sympathy comes not long after the regime had lost much of its legitimacy in the eyes of its own population, only a few short weeks after it killed thousands of protesters.在这漫长的动荡期里，伊朗民众自身处境如何？对他们而言，局势要复杂得多。这股团结与同情的浪潮到来时，距离政权在其民众眼中丧失合法性也不过短短数周——就在战争爆发前不久，当局刚刚杀害了数千名抗议者。The war cut short that period of mourning, despair and global condemnation. Instead, Mr. Trump and Israel appear to have shored up and consolidated the Iranian state, raising its profile as a symbol of clever defiance and softening the views of many inside the country who hated and opposed it, because they recognize that it defended them through weeks of terrifying bombardment.战争缩短了那段哀悼、绝望和全球谴责的时期。相反，特朗普和以色列似乎巩固了伊朗政权，提升了它作为机智的反抗象征的形象，并软化了许多原本憎恨和反对它的伊朗人的看法，因为他们认识到，在数周的可怕轰炸中，这个政权保护了他们。The Islamic republic is not accustomed to perceiving itself as part of a larger whole, and it is far from certain how long this surge in good will last. But Iran now has a story to tell, and it has the ability to tell it.伊斯兰共和国不习惯将自己视为更大整体的一部分，目前还不确定这股善意浪潮能持续多久。但伊朗现在有了一个可以讲述的故事，而且它有能力讲述它。Azadeh Moaveni是观点文章撰稿人，也是纽约大学新闻学副教授。她的新书名为《东翼》。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。