Market Profile Review: June 17 and Trading Plan for June 18 2026E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Sep 2026)CME_MINI:ESU2026JP_MarketProfileLiquidation After the Fed: Bears Seize Control Post-Warsh Presser NQ1! ES1! Using TradingView’s Market Profile, let’s review today's price action and look at what is ahead for tomorrow. June 17th Market Recap The first part of the day delivered typical rotational, two-sided trading—a completely expected behavior ahead of a major macro catalyst. Market participants remained on the sidelines awaiting the 2:00 PM Eastern FOMC interest rate decision. This multi-hour balance caused the Nasdaq (NQ) to build a highly prominent 11-Wide Point of Control (POC) and the S&P 500 (ES) to form a 10-Wide POC. Once the statement crossed the wires and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh began his press conference, the market aggressively digested the updated data and hawkish nuance to the downside. Liquidating sellers took firm control of the auction. ES Development: The liquidation leg successfully closed the weekly gap. ES ended the day with two distinct distributions, a structural price spike, and a late-day Price Probe Down. Additionally, it leaves behind an Afternoon Rally High at F’s period high. NQ Development: The Nasdaq proved slightly more resilient structural-wise but followed the overall trend, carrying over just the Price Probe down in M Period. With this intense afternoon liquidation, both ES and NQ have shifted their daily context to down. Zooming out, the weekly timeframe remains within a developing balance, while the monthly timeframe is still firmly up. Final Market Generated Information (MGI) Scores The final multi-variable scorecards were heavily dominated by the bears: ES: 8-0 NQ: 6-1 Plan for Tomorrow: June 18, 2026 S&P 500 (ES) The ES bears hold a clear, definitive lead heading into the next session. Sellers have multiple structural layers to lean on as overhead defense: the M-period price probe, the upper boundary of the lower distribution, the initial price spike at J’s low, and ultimately the massive 10-Wide POC. To maintain immediate downside momentum, sellers will want to keep price accepted below the Value Area Low (VAL). However, as long as buyers remain unable to trade through today's High of Day (HOD), the bears are in a very favorable position. Surrendering today's high would immediately compromise the bearish thesis and return the daily timeframe back to a state of balance. Buyers face a massive uphill battle. They must fully traverse the entire lower distribution, break through the structural resistance of the upper distribution, and reclaim today's high. Because the Value Area High (VAH) rests so close to today's HOD, buyers have a great deal of heavy lifting to do to repair this profile. If they can at least secure acceptance back above the 10-Wide POC, it will provide an initial sign that responsive buyers are stepping in. Inside Value Open: If ES opens within today's lower value area, sellers retain an immediate edge as long as price holds below the 10-Wide POC. Keep a very close eye on how the market reacts to this level. Execution Guardrail: If price begins rotating within today's value, align your execution with the short MGI score, but exercise strict caution when taking any long setups. Ensure order flow and price action actively confirm any structural shifts before fighting the trend. Downside Targets: The next major downside objective for sellers is to target and fill the lower Rollover Gap. Nasdaq (NQ) Unlike ES, NQ closed within a single large distribution, but the bears still possess a late-day Price Probe to lean on. If NQ opens below its 11-Wide POC, sellers will look to use that high-volume node as an immediate line of defense. The primary goal for sellers will be to secure acceptance beneath today’s VAL to fuel a continuation lower. Their next major structural targets rest at the Weekly Gap fill and the deeper Rollover Gap fill. Similar to the ES plan, buyers have their work cut out for them. The VAH is tightly compressed against today's HOD, meaning taking out today's high is the only structural trigger that successfully shifts the daily context back to balance. Sellers are highly likely to mount a defense at these upper levels. Buyers must find acceptance above the 11-Wide POC to even begin stabilizing today's damage. Closing Thoughts The post-FOMC volatility has re-anchored our short-term parameters and given control back to the sellers. Never force a preconceived narrative on a freshly broken profile. Instead, let the Market Profile structures and evolving MGI scorecards guide your setups candle by candle. Don't start with a bias; let the data guide you.