NDX (D) — 30,000 conquered, all-time highs in sightNASDAQ 100 IndexNASDAQ_DLY:NDXEdoLab-MarketsNDX The NASDAQ 100 trades around 30,406 points, now above the 30,000 barrier it cleared for the first time in early June and a step away from the intraday all-time high printed at 30,762. This is the third reading we publish on the index: in March we flagged a correction within the primary bullish trend, in May we saw it at highs with extreme overbought just below 30,000, and today that round number is already conquered and acts as psychological support. On the daily timeframe the moving average structure is perfectly stacked to the upside, with the EMA 9 (29,872) above the EMA 20 (29,634) and that in turn over the EMA 50, 100 and 200, all in positive slope. Price leans on the EMA 5 (29,992) as the first dynamic cushion. The daily A/D keeps its fast and slow lines in the upper zone of the indicator (84.8 and 86.9), with a barely negative histogram reflecting a short-term breather, not distribution. Weekly Analysis — On the larger timeframe the primary trend is at maximum strength. The weekly EMA stack is ordered to the upside with no single bearish crossover, with price holding well above the EMA 9 (28,915) and the EMA 20 (27,497) as the base of the leg. The weekly MACD prints its main line at 1,444 over the signal at 1,067 with a +377 histogram, meaning mid-term momentum in full bullish expansion. The weekly TRIX keeps the fast line above the slow one with a bullish bias, though momentum is starting to decelerate. The weekly A/D is the most emphatic read: fast and slow lines pinned at 91.7 and 91.5, in the maximum zone of the indicator, describing an accumulation cycle that has shown no distribution at any point of the entire advance. The nuance comes from the overbought condition: the weekly RSI 14 at 70.6 and the Stochastic with the 89 period at 92 and the 50 at 88 confirm an embedded trend reading rather than a reversal. 4H Analysis — The tactical timeframe reflects the digestion of the latest impulse. After tapping the all-time high at 30,762 the index corrected toward the 29,600 area and has rebounded sharply back above 30,400. The 4-hour MACD has already turned up, with the main line at 164 over the signal at 85 and a positive +78 histogram, a sign that the rebound has short-term traction. Price trades above the entire 4-hour EMA stack, with the EMA 9 at 30,062 and the EMA 20 at 29,885 as immediate supports. The nuance appears in the fast oscillators: the Stochastic 14 at 81 is back in overbought territory and the TRIX, although bullish, shows momentum losing steam, consistent with an index attacking resistance again after a vertical rebound. The NASDAQ 100 groups the hundred largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq and is heavily weighted toward technology megacaps, which makes the index the most direct thermometer of the artificial intelligence and semiconductor investment cycle. Record spending on compute infrastructure remains the underlying catalyst sustaining the valuations of the largest weights. The main short-term risk is macro: the Federal Reserve has kept rates in the 3.5% range but with several members opening the door to an additional hike this year to contain inflation, which has pushed long-term yields higher and explains the rejection at 30,762. Added to that is the index's high concentration, where a disappointment in a handful of top-weighted names is enough to drag the whole index. Key levels: - Intraday all-time high: 30,762 (key resistance, zone of the recent rejection) - Immediate resistance: 30,400-30,587 (recent record closes) - Extension: 31,000 (next round number if it breaks the high) - Psychological support: 30,000 (conquered, first level to defend) - Dynamic support: daily EMA 5 and EMA 9 (29,872-29,992) - Support 1: daily EMA 20 (29,634) and the rebound zone at 29,600 - Support 2: daily EMA 50 and weekly EMA 9 (28,553-28,915) - Structural support: weekly EMA 20 (27,497, base of the leg) Setup Rating — 3/5 ⭐⭐⭐⭒⭒ (Very solid primary trend with mid-term overbought and immediate resistance not yet cleared on a close) ✅ Positive factors: - EMA stack 9/20/50/100/200 perfectly aligned on weekly, daily and 4H, with no bearish crossover - A/D with fast and slow lines in the maximum zone on weekly and daily, confirming sustained accumulation without distribution - Weekly MACD in full bullish expansion and 4-hour MACD freshly turned up after the rebound - Conquest of the 30,000 psychological level, which flips from resistance to support - Artificial intelligence and semiconductor investment cycle as the underlying catalyst for the largest weights ⚠️ Cautions: - Weekly RSI 14 at 70.6 and Stochastic saturated on the 89 and 50 periods on weekly and daily, mid-term overbought - Daily MACD with the line below its signal and a negative histogram, mid-term momentum cooling after a vertical advance - Intraday all-time high at 30,762 still not cleared on a close, with a recent weekly rejection candle - Macro risk from the uncertainty over the rate path and the rebound in long-term yields - High index concentration in a few megacaps, a risk factor if a single key weight disappoints 👍 As long as the index closes above 30,000 and defends the daily EMA 9, the bias stays toward continuation into an attack of the all-time high at 30,762 and, above it, toward 31,000. A lateral consolidation between 30,000 and 30,762 for one or two weeks that cools the Stochastic without losing the daily EMA 9 would be the cleanest setup for the next leg. 👎 Loss of 30,000 and of the daily EMA 9 on a close would open a retracement toward the daily EMA 20 (29,634) and the rebound zone at 29,600, and if it extends toward the cluster of the daily EMA 50 and the weekly EMA 9 (28,553-28,915). It would be a healthy correction to purge the overbought and would only put the structure under review if the index lost the weekly EMA 20 at 27,497 on a weekly close. What level would break the bullish thesis for you here, a loss of 30,000 or something lower? 👇