FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWAfter the surprising US-Iran breakthrough on Thursday, gold has erased all lastweek’s losses as traders pared back rate hike bets on expectations of lower oilprices and easing inflation concerns. In the short-term, the focus continues to be on this new development, so wecan expect the bullish bias to hold (all else being equal). Looking ahead, the FOMCdecision tomorrow could be a major catalyst.The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove theeasing bias from the statement. At this meeting, we will also get the Summaryof Economic Projections (SEP) where inflation is expected to be revised higherwhile unemployment lower in the short-term. The focus will be mostly on the dotplot which is expected to show no cuts this year. All of this is expected andalready priced in.We can expect gold to get a significant boost if the Fed maintains theeasing bias and/or one rate cut by year-end. The hawkish surprise could be theFed signalling one or more rate hikes by year-end in which case we can expect goldto sink. Looking ahead, the risk is that negative supply shock caused by the US-Iranwar turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends that boostseconomic activity further requiring rate hikes anyway. GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold avoided a complete breakdown after the surprising US-Iranbreakthrough. The price has risen above the broken upward trendline opening thedoor for a bigger pullback into the major downward trendline. If the price getsthere, we can expect the sellers to lean on the downward trendline with adefined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on theother hand, will look for a break to extend the rally into the 5,400 levelnext.GOLDTECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havethe 4,350 resistance zone and the minor downward trendline that the price willneed to break to open the door for a bigger move into the 4,700 level next. Thesellers will likely step in around the resistance and/or the trendline with adefined risk above the trendline to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, onthe other hand, will look for breaks to increase the bullish bets into themajor trendline around the 4,700 level.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee the price started the week with a positive gap and stalled at theresistance. The gap might act as support now. If we get a pullback into the4,250 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below thesupport to position for a rally into the 4,700 level next. The sellers, on the otherhand, will want to see a break lower to pile in for a drop into new lows. Thered lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the FOMCrate decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.