日本皇室面临继承危机:女性天皇可能出现吗?

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赫海威, HISAKO UENO2026年6月16日4月,日本天皇德仁(中)、皇后雅子及其他王室成员一同出席在东京举行的园游会。 Pool photo by Kazuhiro NogiJapan’s imperial family, which has long maintained a male-only lineage for emperors, is running out of royals. Now the country has a plan to help revitalize its dwindling ranks: Recruit more men.日本皇室长期以来维持着仅限男性继承天皇之位的传统,如今正面临皇室成员后继无人的困境。现在,日本提出了一项计划以振兴日益萎缩的皇室:招收更多男性成员。Japan’s legislature, hoping to avoid a succession crisis, moved forward with a proposal this past week to allow the imperial family to adopt scores of distant male relatives. That could give Japan more choices for future emperors — only men are allowed to ascend the Chrysanthemum Throne — and help ensure the survival of the world’s oldest monarchy.为避免继承危机,日本立法机构于上周推进了一项提案,允许皇室收养数十名远房男性亲属。这可能日本未来的天皇提供更多选择——只有男性才被允许登上菊花王座——并有助于确保这个世界上最古老的君主制得以存续。The plan has angered some Japanese officials, commentators and activists, who say there is an easier solution: allowing women to reign as emperor, an idea embraced by a broad swath of the public, according to polls.该计划激怒了一些日本官员、评论家和活动人士,他们表示有一个更简单的解决方案:允许女性成为天皇。民调显示,这一想法得到了广大民众的支持。东京皇居的新年贺年仪式。“Many citizens want a female emperor now,” said Kiyomi Tsujimoto, a female lawmaker with the Constitutional Democratic Party who opposes the plan. “I have people running up to me every day.”“现在许多国民都希望有一位女天皇,”反对该计划的立宪民主党女性议员辻元清美表示。“每天都有人对我表达这一诉求。”But in Japan’s patriarchal system, that idea is considered a nonstarter.但在日本的父权体制下,这种想法被认为是行不通的。Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a conservative lawmaker, shattered the political glass ceiling last year when she became the first woman to lead Japan’s government. But she and her allies have been among the most vocal proponents of preserving the male-only lineage.保守派议员高市早苗首相在去年打破了政治领域的玻璃天花板,成为首位领导日本政府的女性。但她及其盟友一直是维持男性世袭皇位最强烈的支持者。She has said that “it is considered appropriate to limit eligibility to male descendants of the imperial lineage.”她曾表示,“将继承资格限定为皇室血统的男性后代是适当的。”An Imperial Crisis皇室危机Japan’s demographic decline has touched nearly every aspect of its society, including the monarchy. The royal family is now made up of only 16 people — five men and 11 women — down about a quarter since 1990. This makes it difficult for the family to carry out its public duties, like overseas visits and court ceremonies. There are simply not enough royals to take part. Today, there are only three heirs to the throne, compared with six a generation ago.日本的人口衰退几乎影响了社会的方方面面,包括皇室。如今,日本皇室仅有16人,包括五名男性和11名女性,与1990年相比减少了约四分之一。这使得皇室难以履行海外访问和宫廷仪式等公共职责,因为根本没有足够的皇室成员来参与这些活动。皇位继承人目前仅剩三位,上一代则有六位。The reigning emperor, Naruhito, 66, is the 126th in a line that extends back to the country’s founding in 660 B.C. by the Emperor Jimmu, who, according to legend, descended from a sun goddess.现任天皇德仁现年66岁,是该世系的第126代,这一血脉可追溯至公元前660年神武天皇开创的王朝。据传说,神武天皇是一位太阳女神的后代。In the early 2000s, the pressure to bear a son drove Naruhito’s wife, Empress Masako, a Harvard-educated former diplomat, into a deep depression. The couple has a daughter, Princess Aiko, 24, who has taken on a more visible role recently, like leading a visit to Laos, and has been championed by some as a future emperor.在21世纪初,生下男性继承人的巨大压力导致德仁的妻子、曾在哈佛大学就读的前外交官雅子皇后患上了严重的抑郁症。这对夫妇育有一女,即现年24岁的爱子公主。她最近开始扮演更受瞩目的角色,例如率团访问老挝,并被一些人视为未来的天皇人选。爱子公主去年访问老挝。But under the current rules, only Prince Hitachi, Naruhito’s 90-year-old uncle; Crown Prince Akishino, the emperor’s 60-year-old brother; and Prince Hisahito, the monarch’s 19-year-old nephew, are recognized as heirs to the throne.但在现行规定下,只有德仁现年90岁的叔叔常陆宫正仁亲王、现年60岁的弟弟秋筱宫文仁亲王,以及现年19岁的侄子悠仁亲王被认可为皇位继承人。The Adoption Plan收养计划In the aftermath of World War II, the United States sought to weaken the power of the Japanese imperial family members, who were regarded by the public as demigods. (The monarchy historically maintained a divine right to rule.)在第二次世界大战结束后,美国试图削弱日本皇室成员的权力,因为皇室成员当时被民众视为半神。(历史上,君主制一直主张君权神授。)Under Japan’s 1947 Constitution, imposed under Gen. Douglas MacArthur, the emperor became “the symbol of the state and of the unity of the people,” a figurehead with no political authority. Eleven imperial families were forced to give up their royal status, shrinking the family to 16, down from 67 in 1946.根据由道格拉斯·麦克阿瑟将军施加的日本1947年宪法,天皇成了“国家和人民团结的象征”,沦为没有任何政治权力的虚位元首。11个皇室家族被迫放弃皇室身份,使得皇族成员从1946年的67人锐减至16人。Under the plan to be advanced in Parliament, men from these former royal branches would be brought back into the monarchy. While it is unclear how the men would be selected or how many would be eligible, they would most likely come from the Kuni, Higashikuni, Kaya and Takeda families. Experts said their offspring might one day be eligible to inherit the throne.根据即将提交议会审议的计划,这些前皇族分支中的男性成员将被重新纳入皇室体系。虽然目前尚不清楚这些男性将如何选拔,或有多少人符合资格,但他们很可能来自久迩、东久迩、贺阳和竹田家族。专家表示,他们的后代未来有一天可能具备继承皇位的资格。1943年,明仁亲王(左)等亲王在东京为士兵送行。The men from these families have been living as commoners, working in media, life insurance, advertising and other fields, according to Japanese news reports. Some question whether the public would accept them or their offspring as royals.据日本新闻报道,这些家族的男性一直以平民身份生活,在媒体、人寿保险、广告及其他领域工作。有人质疑日本民众是否会接受他们或其后代成为皇室成员。Emperor Naruhito declined to discuss the specifics of the plan this past week but said he hoped the discussions would be “understood by the people.”德仁天皇在上周拒绝讨论该计划的具体细节,但他表示,希望相关的讨论能够“得到国民的理解”。A Nod to Women对女性的认可Japan has had female emperors with varying degrees of power, including Go-Sakuramachi, who reigned in the late 1700s. But men have dominated the ranks since then, and Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has led Japan for much of the past seven decades, has long held that the male line of succession is sacrosanct.日本历史上曾出现过权力大小不一的女性天皇,包括在18世纪末在位的后樱町天皇,但自那以后一直由男性主导皇位。高市早苗所属的自由民主党在过去70多年里长期执政,它一直坚持认为男性继承制是神圣不可侵犯的。The plan now in Parliament would give women in the imperial family some new rights. They would be allowed to stay in the family and retain their royal status if they marry a commoner.目前提交国会审议的方案将赋予皇室女性一些新的权利。如果她们与平民结婚,将被允许留在皇室并保留其皇室身份。2月,日本首相高市早苗在国会发表演讲。But others argue that equality will not be achieved until women are allowed to reign, an idea that has been discussed on and off over the years. The popularity of Princess Aiko has added to a sense that women could be well suited for the role.但也有人认为,除非允许女性继承皇位,否则就无法实现真正的平等,这一想法多年来一直被断断续续地讨论着。爱子公主备受欢迎更让人觉得女性完全胜任这一角色。Hideya Kawanishi, an expert on the imperial family at Nagoya University, said the plan would not address the longer-term succession crisis. He said the problem could be solved by elevating women, and the reluctance to do so reflected prejudice in Japan.名古屋大学的皇室问题专家河西秀哉表示,该计划无法解决长期的继承危机。他指出,这个问题可以通过提升女性地位来解决,对此措施的抗拒反映了日本社会的偏见。“Even though society has changed, there are still old men who lament when a girl is born,” he said. “Over time, the imperial system will become unsustainable.”“尽管社会已经发生了变化,但在女孩出生时,仍然有一些老一辈男人会感到惋惜,”他说。“随着时间的推移,天皇制度将变得难以为继。”Kiuko Notoya对本文有报道贡献。赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)是《纽约时报》东京分社社长,领导时报对日本及周边地区的报道。在过去十年的大部分时间里,他一直在亚洲进行报道,此前曾任驻华记者。Hisako Ueno是常驻东京的记者/研究员,撰写日本政治、商业、劳工、性别及文化相关议题。翻译:晋其角点击查看本文英文版。