NASDAQ Bearish Divergence: Is 28,000 the Next Major Test?US100SKILLING:US100TheCryptagonThe Nasdaq has just completed another powerful rally—but the chart suggests that the move may be repeating a familiar structure. The first highlighted advance measured approximately 7.71%. The latest recovery measured approximately 8.74%. Both rallies reached nearly the same major resistance region near the upper boundary of the descending channel. Price has recovered. Momentum has not. While US100 revisits its previous highs, RSI continues producing lower highs, creating a visible bearish divergence. That does not automatically confirm a reversal. However, it becomes increasingly important when price is simultaneously testing channel resistance and a previously defended ceiling. The major downside level highlighted on the chart is: 28,000 The question is whether the Nasdaq breaks resistance first—or repeats the previous rotation toward the lower channel boundary. Trend Structure The broader structure remains mixed. The immediate bullish argument is strong: • Price remains above the MA50 • Price remains above the MA200 • Both moving averages continue rising • The recent recovery produced another strong upside leg However, the larger visible formation remains a: Descending Channel Price is currently trading near the upper section of that channel rather than breaking decisively above it. This means the Nasdaq remains bullish above its moving averages, but structurally vulnerable beneath channel resistance. Support / Resistance Primary resistance: • Previous high region near 30,700–30,800 • Upper boundary of the descending channel • Horizontal resistance marked by the “0” level The latest rally is once again testing this area. Immediate dynamic support: • MA50 near 29,764 • MA200 near 29,556 These moving averages form the first important support cluster beneath price. Primary downside target: • 28,000 • Lower channel region • Horizontal level marked by the projected move A decline toward 28,000 would represent a full rotation through the visible channel rather than an immediate long-term trend reversal. Moving Averages The chart displays: • MA50 near 29,764 • MA200 near 29,556 Both moving averages remain beneath price and retain positive slopes. That keeps the short- and medium-term trend constructive. The MA50 also remains above the MA200, so no bearish crossover is visible. The first meaningful technical deterioration would occur if price loses the MA50. A break beneath both averages would provide stronger confirmation that the channel rotation toward 28,000 is developing. Indicators Visible RSI(14) is near 56.16, while its signal average is near 54.42. On its own, this reading remains neutral to moderately bullish. RSI is: • Above the neutral 50 region • Slightly above its signal average • Not overbought • Not oversold The concern comes from structure rather than the current RSI value. Price has returned close to its previous highs, while RSI remains substantially beneath its earlier peak. That creates the visible: Bearish Divergence The divergence is an early warning, not a confirmed sell signal. Price still needs to lose support before sellers gain technical confirmation. Chart Pattern The dominant pattern is a: Descending Channel The upper boundary continues restricting upside, while the lower boundary defines the projected downside region. A second important feature is the repetition between the two highlighted rallies: • Previous advance: 7.71% • Current advance: 8.74% Both moves ended beneath almost the same resistance zone. This creates a potential historical analogue: A similar rally magnitude, followed by another rejection from the same broader structure. Momentum Momentum remains positive in the immediate term, but it is less convincing than price action. US100 is above both moving averages and RSI is above 50. However: • RSI continues producing lower highs • Price is struggling beneath channel resistance • The latest rally has not generated a momentum breakout This creates a divergence between trend and momentum. The trend remains constructive. Momentum is warning that the advance may be losing strength. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario requires a decisive breakout above: 30,700–30,800 A sustained move above the previous highs and the upper channel boundary would: • Invalidate the immediate channel-rejection thesis • Reduce the importance of the bearish RSI divergence • Confirm continuation of the broader uptrend • Keep both moving averages acting as dynamic support As long as price remains above the MA50 and MA200, this bullish scenario remains technically valid. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario begins with another rejection beneath the channel’s upper boundary. Confirmation would strengthen if price loses: • MA50 near 29,764 • MA200 near 29,556 A breakdown beneath both moving averages would expose the lower section of the descending channel. The primary visible downside objective would then become: 28,000 The bearish divergence would carry significantly more weight only after price confirms weakness through these support breaks. Key Conclusion The Nasdaq has repeated a rally of almost the same magnitude into almost the same resistance region. Price remains above both moving averages, so the trend has not broken. But RSI is producing lower highs while price challenges previous highs. The chart therefore presents a clear conflict: Trend strength versus weakening momentum. Does the Nasdaq finally break above 30,800, or does the bearish divergence trigger another channel rotation toward 28,000?