Oil shows we may be in trouble soon Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX_DL:CL1!LucidNinjaIt’s interesting how analyzing oil can almost be like analyzing the VIX — understanding the inverse relationship with the NASDAQ can sometimes give a clearer picture. I drew a bearish diamond expecting an upside fakeout before the drop, but that didn’t happen. The thing about diamonds is they often retrace the entire move they’re correcting, not just part of it. Looking at the Fibonacci structure, the .786 level lines up with the second leg of the gap-up and where I believe the true diamond structure started. Oil is now between the .618 and .786 levels, and my view is any bounce may be short-lived with a possible move toward $68. The key is what happens there. If oil stabilizes, that could support markets. If oil continues lower and starts trending down, that’s when I’d be more concerned. I’m watching this alongside NASDAQ because oil weakness has historically been an early warning sign. My current view is we may still get one more push higher toward 32K–32.5K before a larger reversal. Just following structure, Fibonacci, correlations, and price action.