This weekend delivered something almost nobody dared hope for after more than a hundred days of conflict: an agreement between the United States and Iran, announced Sunday by Donald Trump himself, paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade. Oil reacted immediately — WTI dropped below $82, extending a monthly decline of more than 23%. For anyone tracking the macro transmission chain over the past few weeks, this is a genuine shock.Why Does It Matter So Much?The entire macro narrative of recent weeks rested on a precise mechanism: the war in Iran kept oil elevated, elevated oil fed an already-tight US inflation picture (May CPI came in at 4.2%, its highest since 2023), and that imported inflation cornered the Fed into a hawkish posture it hadn’t really chosen. The result was elevated real yields, a supported dollar, and gold under sustained pressure since its January peak.This weekend, the first link in that chain just gave way. And the question everyone is now asking is simple: is that enough to reverse gold’s downtrend?The Case for Relief in GoldThe most direct argument runs through real yields. If oil stays around $80 in the coming weeks, US inflation should mechanically start cooling — energy accounted for more than 60% of May’s monthly CPI increase. Inflation falling faster than nominal rates means contracting real yields, and historically, that’s one of the most reliable tailwinds for gold.There’s also a subtler effect on the dollar. Part of the DXY’s recent strength came precisely from the idea that the Fed had no choice — that it was a prisoner of imported inflation and had to stay restrictive no matter what. That argument just lost much of its force. Tuesday’s FOMC has become a genuine two-way event, when just days ago it looked all but settled in a hawkish direction.Reasons for CautionThat said, calling this a trend reversal would be premature, and several points deserve to be put on the table.First, the end of a major war is, almost by definition, a risk-on event. And risk-on isn’t typically gold’s friend as a safe-haven asset — it’s the playground of equities and yield-bearing currencies. If markets celebrate the end of 107 days of conflict by rotating into risk assets, gold may not be the primary beneficiary of that relief, even as the inflation narrative improves elsewhere.Second, there’s a meaningful timing mismatch. May’s CPI at 4.2% is already published, already locked in. An $80 barrel today changes nothing about the numbers Kevin Warsh will have in front of him Tuesday for his first dot plot as Fed Chair. He has to work with the data he has, not the data he expects for July. Nothing rules out a still-cautious, even hawkish tone, simply through institutional inertia.Finally, gold’s technical picture can’t be ignored. The metal broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, and is down 25% from its January peak. A downtrend of that magnitude doesn’t reverse over a single weekend — even one as eventful as this.Our Read: A Regime Shift, Not Yet a Trend ChangeThe fairest framing at this stage is a shift in volatility regime rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Gold’s structural downtrend remains technically intact. But the short-term bearish conviction has clearly just lost one of its main pillars.Tuesday’s FOMC is therefore no longer just a trend-confirming event, as it appeared on Friday — it has become a genuine pivot point, where both scenarios (a still-cautious tone driven by inertia, or a more accommodative one already pricing in coming disinflation) are now credible.In this kind of environment, the right posture is neither to keep shorting out of habit, nor to rush into a bullish reversal out of excitement. It’s to watch how the market actually digests this new reality over the coming sessions, and let the FOMC settle the debate the weekend just opened.Note: the formal signing of the agreement is expected Friday in Switzerland, with 60 days of negotiations to follow on Iran’s nuclear file. The risk of talks stalling remains real — adding yet another layer of uncertainty to an already loaded week.