FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWSilver broke down last week as continued escalations in the Strait ofHormuz and hawkish Fed expectations after the strong NFP raised real yields andtightened financial conditions. Everything changed on Thursday when Trumpcancelled his planned attacks on Iran and announced a deal with confirmingreports from the Iranian side. This surprising breakthrough triggered a strongreversal on expectations of lower oil prices, easing inflation concerns and lowerrisks of rate hikes.In the short-term, the focus continues to be on the positive drivers fromthe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, so we can expect the bullish bias tohold (all else being equal) but the FOMC decision today remains a risk.The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove theeasing bias from the statement. At this meeting, we will also get the Summaryof Economic Projections (SEP) where inflation is expected to be revised higherwhile the unemployment rate could see a slight downtick in the short-term. Thefocus will be mostly on the dot plot which is expected to show no cuts thisyear and the next. All of this is expected and already priced in.You can find a comprehensive Fed preview hereThe main hawkish surprises include a rate hike in the 2026 dot or more thanone in 2027. In this scenario, we will likely see a selloff in silver with theprice falling back to pre-deal levels. On the other hand, the dovish surprisesinclude a rate cut in the 2026 dot or in the 2027 dot as that would implicitlysignal an easing bias. In such a scenario, we can expect silver to rally intonew highs and start targeting the 90.00 handle.Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference will also be in focus, although Iwould argue that the Board is going to be more important than the Fed Chair atleast until the markets get to know him better and he proves to be independent.Trump just gave Warsh a big assist by ending the war, so he can say the Fed canlook through the short-term increase in inflation. Looking ahead, the risk is that the negative supply shock caused by theUS-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends that boostseconomic activity further requiring rate hikes anyway. That’s likely to be thenext tail risk for precious metals.SILVER TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that silver broke below the major trendline last week and extended thelosses targeting the next major trendline until the surprising US-Iran dealreversed the momentum. The price has almost pulled all the way back to thebroken trendline where we have now a strong resistance around the 71.00-73-00price area. This is where we can expectthe sellers to step in with a defined risk above the broken trendline to keeppushing into the next major trendline around the 55.00 handle. The buyers, onthe other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to open the door fora rally back into the 90.00 handle. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the market opened the week with a positive gap and consolidated. It wouldn’tbe surprising to see a spike lower to close the gap before another rally into newhighs, but that will likely need to be supported by the FOMC decision today. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the recent rangebound price action as traders await the Fed’sdecision. We can expect the buyers to step in around the 68.00-69.00 price areato position for a rally into the 90.00 handle on a neutral to dovish Feddecision. Conversely, a more hawkish than expected one should result in aselloff back towards the pre-deal levels. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the FOMCrate decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. OnFriday, the US-Iran “peace deal” is expected to be signed in Switzerland. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.