XRP tradedat $1.20 on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, correcting for a second consecutivesession after Monday's rally above $1.29 was rejected at the lower edge of therange the token broke down from earlier this month. The moveputs the Ripple-linked token, XRP, roughly 4% lower on the day and keeps itinside a structural downtrend that has framed the chart since the $3.65 cyclehigh in October 2025.In thisarticle I am answering the question why XRP is going down today and how low theXRP price can go in the next weeks.Followme on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDkXRP Technical Analysis:The $1.29 RejectionMonday'ssession rejected the consolidation XRP traded inside through the start of June,and the token is now testing the lower edge of that box, between $1.28 and$1.31, as resistance. My chartshows a clean polarity flip: the boundary that held as a floor now caps price,and the 50-day EMA sits directly on that level, reinforcing it. That confluenceis why the $1.29 test failed.In 15+years overall as a trader and analyst, with 10 years specifically atFinanceMagnates.com, I treat a failed reclaim of a broken range as confirmationrather than noise, a pattern I flagged repeatedly on my analyst page. The samesetup played out in my February analysis of XRP'sdecline, when an 8%spike to $1.66 gave everything back within a session.Below spot,XRP holds a support zone marked by $1.14, the February low, and $1.07, theearly-June low. The $1.07 print is the lowest level of 2026 and the lowestsince November 2024, as the daily chart below shows.The maindaily trend stays clearly bearish, and a daily close under $1.07 confirms thebreakdown.Weekly View: XRP Below the200-Week EMAOn theweekly timeframe, XRP trades below the 200-week moving average, which keeps themedium-term trend bearish as well. Below the $1.07 support sits the next majorzone, drawn from 2023 and 2024. It beginsnear $0.93, the March 2022 peaks retested in July 2023, and extends down to$0.76, the March 2024 highs. Price chopped sideways under those levels formonths before the November 2024 breakout, which makes the band a crediblemagnet on a support break.From $1.20,that zone sits 23% to 36% lower, depending on whether the move targets the topor the base of the band. The downside potential on a break of local support istherefore substantial. An upside close back above $1.31 would reopen the $1.51to $1.57 ceiling that has capped every rally this year.Why Is XRP Falling ThisWeek?The sellingis macro before it is XRP-specific. Bitcoin's weakness has dragged the broadermarket, with crypto investment products shedding roughly $4.3 billion across 13sessions of net outflows into mid-June. Traders are also de-risking into theFOMC, where a hawkish projection from Warsh's first meeting would lift thedollar and pressure risk assets.The CLARITY Act limbo compounds it. The bill sitson the Senate calendar after the June 1 committee report, but leadership hasnot scheduled a floor vote, the White House July 4 signing target now lookstight, and Galaxy Digital puts 2026 passage odds near 60%. As I noted in my recent piece on viral XRP targets, regulatory wins alone have notsustained a bid this year.PaulHoward, Senior Director at Wincent, framed earlier weakness as "anopportunity for accumulation and strategic positioning" ahead of the Maymarkup. That accumulation thesis has not translated into price, which is thecore problem for XRP bulls right now.Thedrivers behind this week's slide:Bitcoin-led risk-off, with crypto ETFs shedding about $4.3 billion over 13 sessionsDe-risking into the June 17 FOMC and Warsh's first dot plotCLARITY Act floor vote still unscheduled despite the July 4 targetA confirmed resistance flip at $1.28-$1.31 reinforced by the 50-day EMAInstitutional Flows:Whales Accumulate as Price SlidesThe flowdata cuts against the price. Spot XRP ETFs have pulled in roughly $1.43 billionsince their November 2025 launch, with May setting a monthly record near$131.94 million. On-chain,more than 25 million XRP has moved off exchanges and whale addresses hit arecord 332,230, a divergence that points to accumulation beneath the bearishtape. That same tension shows up at the index level, where FM Intelligence's base case forBitcoin pins a$95,000 to $130,000 band on CLARITY passage while spot trades far below it.How Low Can XRP Go? XRPPrice PredictionsForecastsfor XRP span an unusually wide range, and the table below pairs each with myown read.StandardChartered's Geoffrey Kendrick holds an $8.00 end-2026 target, contingent onCLARITY passage and $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows, a path that needsa catalyst the calendar is not delivering, so I treat it as a 2027 story atbest. The 24/7Wall St Monte Carlo base case of $1.26 to $1.46 assumes range-bound trade,which my chart only validates while $1.07 holds. Its $1.00 downside, pinned at35% probability if the bill stalls, lines up closely with my own structuralread.Severalanalysts flag $0.87 to $0.92 as the next support on a daily close below $1.09,which sits inside the upper half of my target zone. My measuredtarget from the 2023-2024 supply band is the $0.93 to $0.76 zone, 23% to 36%below spot, and it is the level I am watching if local support breaks, a thesisconsistent with my March analysis and its $0.53 ultra-bearishextension.FAQ, XRP Price AnalysisWhy is XRP falling today?XRP fell to$1.20 on June 17, 2026, a second straight down session after Monday's rally to$1.29 was rejected. The slide is mostly macro: Bitcoin weakness, roughly $4.3billion in crypto ETF outflows over 13 sessions, and de-risking into theFederal Reserve's rate decision. The stalled CLARITY Act floor vote removed thenear-term bullish catalyst that bulls expected this month.How low can XRP go?On mychart, immediate support sits at $1.14 and $1.07, the lowest level sinceNovember 2024. A daily close below $1.07 opens the 2023-2024 supply zonebetween $0.93 and $0.76, which is 23% to 36% below the current $1.20. Otheranalysts flag $0.87 to $0.92 as interim support inside that band on a break of$1.09.What is XRP's keyresistance level?The $1.28to $1.31 zone is the level to beat. It was the floor of XRP's recentconsolidation and now acts as resistance after the breakdown, reinforced by the50-day EMA on the same boundary. Monday's rejection at $1.29 confirmed theflip. A daily close back above $1.31 would be the first sign the bearishstructure is weakening.Will the CLARITY Act pushXRP higher?It could,but timing is the problem. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9on May 14 and sits on the Senate calendar, yet no floor vote is scheduled andthe July 4 signing target looks tight. Galaxy Digital puts 2026 passage near60%. Each missed deadline this year has triggered a sell-the-news reactionrather than a sustained rally.What is the XRP priceprediction for 2026?Forecastsrange widely. Standard Chartered targets $8.00 by year-end if CLARITY passesand ETF inflows accelerate. A 24/7 Wall St Monte Carlo model sees a $1.26 to$1.46 base case with a $1.00 downside if the bill stalls. My own chart targetsthe $0.93 to $0.76 zone on a break of $1.07, given the bearish daily and weeklystructure.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.