KEITH BRADSHER2026年6月22日南京的一家炼油厂，摄于上月。战争期间，中国的炼油厂一直维持运转。 Hector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhile the United States and Iran haggle over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring oil exports from the Persian Gulf, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is not expected to quickly ramp up purchases from the region.尽管美国和伊朗正在就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、恢复波斯湾石油出口进行讨价还价，但全球最大石油进口国中国预计不会迅速增加从该地区的采购。If normal traffic through the strait fully resumes in the coming weeks, numerous tankers carrying oil bound for China that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf during the war would be on the move again. Their eventual arrival at Chinese ports is likely to produce a temporary surge in deliveries.如果未来几周霍尔木兹海峡的航运完全恢复正常，那么战争期间滞留在波斯湾、原本前往中国的许多油轮将重新启航。这些油轮陆续抵达中国港口后，可能会带来短暂的原油到港高峰。China finds itself in a very different position from much of the world, which is emerging from the war in Iran with depleted oil supplies.在伊朗战争结束之际，世界大多数国家的石油储备已经告急，而中国的境况则迥然不同。The crude stockpiles held by the country’s state-owned energy companies remain nearly full. Beijing appears not to have tapped its vast strategic reserves, and storage tanks at Chinese refineries are brimming with gasoline, diesel and other refined products.中国国有能源企业持有的原油库存依然接近满仓。北京方面似乎并未动用庞大的战略储备，而中国炼油厂的储罐里也装满了汽油、柴油和其他成品油。China cut its daily oil imports by roughly a third during the war. The pullback, driven largely by higher prices, helped ease some of the upward pressure on global oil markets caused by the almost complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.战争期间，中国每天的石油进口量减少了约三分之一。这种主要由油价上涨推动的进口减少在一定程度上缓解了霍尔木兹海峡几乎完全关闭所造成的国际油价上行压力。China was able to reduce imports so sharply in part because it had been buying more oil than it needed before the war. For years, it accumulated inventories whenever prices were low as part of a broader push to strengthen national self-reliance and improve its ability to withstand supply disruptions.中国之所以能够如此大幅地减少进口，部分原因在于它在战前的石油采购量就已经超过了自身需求。多年来，只要价格走低，中国就会囤积库存，这是它增强自给能力和提升供应中断应对能力的整体努力的一部分。China also imported additional oil to reduce its trade surplus. In recent years, Beijing has increasingly parked excess foreign exchange earnings in stockpiles of commodities such as oil rather than overseas bank deposits or Treasury bonds, after watching Western governments freeze Russia’s foreign assets following its invasion of Ukraine four years ago.中国还通过增加石油进口来压缩贸易顺差。目睹西方国家在四年前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后冻结俄罗斯海外资产的举动，北京近年来越来越倾向于将过剩的外汇收入转化为石油等大宗商品储备，而非存入海外银行账户或购买美国国债。Few analysts expect China to quickly return to its previous pace of imports, particularly as world oil prices still have not fallen back to their levels before the Iran war.分析人士普遍认为，中国不会迅速恢复到战前的进口规模，尤其是在国际油价仍未回落至伊朗战争爆发前水平的情况下。“I would expect China’s oil companies to continue to be price sensitive and to increase their purchases gradually,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a longtime China oil specialist at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.“我预计中国的石油企业仍然会对价格非常敏感，将逐步增加采购量，”牛津能源研究所资深中国石油问题专家菲利普·安德鲁斯-斯皮德表示。油轮在青岛港的一个码头卸原油，摄于今年3月。Chinese companies kept their refineries running throughout the war by drawing on their extensive corporate stockpiles of crude. But demand in China for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined products appears to have weakened as prices rose and households and businesses became cautious about fuel consumption. Sales of gasoline-powered cars plunged in April and May.通过动用企业庞大的原油库存，中国公司在整场战争期间维持了炼油厂的运转。但随着油价上涨，居民和企业对燃料消费变得更加谨慎，中国对汽油、柴油、航空燃油等成品油的需求似乎有所减弱。4月和5月，燃油车销量大幅下滑。At the same time, the Chinese government halted most exports of refined products this spring to ensure adequate domestic supplies. The move contributed to severe shortages elsewhere in Asia, particularly in developing countries with limited refining capacity. China overtook the United States in 2024 to become the world’s largest oil refiner and is typically a major supplier of refined fuels to neighboring countries.与此同时，中国今年春季暂停了大部分成品油出口，以确保国内供应。此举加剧了亚洲其他地区的严重短缺，尤其是炼油能力有限的发展中国家。中国在2024年超越美国成为全球最大炼油国，通常是邻国成品油的主要供应国。The combination of weak domestic demand and the export halt has left storage tanks so full of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products that oil companies have little incentive to buy and process additional crude, analysts said.分析人士指出，内需疲软与出口暂停的叠加导致汽油、柴油、航空燃油等各类成品油储罐爆满，石油企业因而几乎没有动力购买和加工更多原油。“I don’t expect China’s crude imports to structurally recover to prewar levels anytime soon,” said Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at the data service Kpler.“我预计短期内，中国的原油进口不会从结构上恢复到战前水平，”数据服务机构Kpler的高级石油分析师徐慕宇表示。Imports could increase if Beijing suddenly decided to allow unrestricted exports of refined products that are now in short supply elsewhere. But China has long taken a cautious approach to energy policy. Uncertainty also lingers over how quickly any mines that Iran may have laid in the strait can be cleared and whether the U.S.-Iranian agreement will hold. The accord’s main provisions last only 60 days.如果北京突然决定允许不受限制地出口目前其他地区短缺的成品油，那么原油的进口量可能会上升。但中国长期以来在能源政策上采取审慎态度。此外，伊朗可能在海峡布设的水雷能否迅速清除，以及美伊协议能否维系，仍存在不确定性。该协议的主要条款有效期仅为60天。“The central risk of conflict in the region is not removed,” said David Broadstock, a partner and oil analyst at the Lantau Group, an East Asian energy consulting firm.“地区冲突的核心风险并未消除，”东亚能源咨询公司Lantau Group合伙人兼石油分析师戴维·布罗德斯托克表示。China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has welcomed the agreement and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while offering little indication of how Beijing might adjust its energy policies. “Early resumption of safe and free passage through the strait serves the interests of all parties,” Lin Jian, a ministry spokesman, said at a briefing on June 16.中国外交部对协议以及霍尔木兹海峡可能重新开放表示欢迎，但并未明确说明北京将如何调整其能源政策。外交部发言人林剑在6月16日的记者会上表示：“尽早恢复海峡安全、自由通行符合各方利益。”北京一家加油站，摄于今年3月。随着油价上涨、家庭对燃油消费变得谨慎，中国的汽油需求似乎已有所减弱。The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted much of China’s oil supply not only from Iran but also from other Persian Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.霍尔木兹海峡关闭期间，中国不仅从伊朗进口石油受阻，从沙特阿拉伯、科威特等其他波斯湾产油国获得的供应也受到严重影响。Yet the terms of the 60-day agreement between Washington and Tehran also remove much of the incentive for China’s small independent refiners to keep buying large volumes of Iranian oil.然而，华盛顿与德黑兰达成的60天协议条款也在很大程度上削弱了中国的小型独立炼油厂继续大量购买伊朗石油的动力。The agreement calls for the United States to work with other countries and the United Nations to remove international sanctions on Iranian oil exports. If that happens, China’s refiners could lose the discounts of $3 to $10 per barrel they have enjoyed by purchasing Iranian crude despite international sanctions.该协议要求美国与其他国家和联合国合作，解除对伊朗石油出口的国际制裁。一旦制裁解除，中国炼油厂可能会失去他们因无视国际制裁购买伊朗原油而享有的每桶3至10美元的折扣。Those discounts generated savings worth several hundred million dollars a month for Chinese refiners. Before the closure of the strait, China was buying over 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, or more than 1.5 million barrels a day, according to estimates by Kpler.这些折扣曾为中国炼油企业每月节省数亿美元。根据Kpler的估算，海峡关闭之前，中国购买了伊朗超过90%的石油出口量，日均超过150万桶。Oil sales to China have accounted for 6 percent or more of the economies of Iran and Russia in recent years. Western governments have long argued that those purchases have helped Iran finance proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen and enabled Russia to fund its war in Ukraine.近年来，对中国的石油销售已占伊朗和俄罗斯经济总量的6%或更高比例。西方国家政府长期以来一直认为，这些采购帮助伊朗资助了其在黎巴嫩、伊拉克、叙利亚和也门的代理人武装，同时也帮助俄罗斯为其在乌克兰的战争提供了资金。Beijing, however, maintains that it is not bound by many Western restrictions on Iranian and Russian oil because they were not approved by the United Nations. Russia and China have repeatedly used their positions as permanent members on the U.N. Security Council to block such measures, contending that trade and engagement are more effective than sanctions in addressing issues like Iran’s nuclear program.不过，北京坚持认为，许多针对伊朗和俄罗斯石油的西方限制措施并不具有约束力，因为这些措施并未获得联合国批准。俄罗斯和中国多次利用在联合国安理会的常任理事国地位否决相关制裁措施，认为贸易和接触比制裁更能有效化解伊朗核计划等问题。Xinyun Wu对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site